Notes: If at any point the New Popular Front (NFP) alliance changes its name or adds/subtracts parties to the coalition, I will use the final coalition after the second round of voting completes and will resolve the market immediately after election. If parties re-shuffle based on events occurring after the results, I will not use them. Market resolves based on results after the second round.
1,000
3.00🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ1,191 | |
| 2 | Ṁ305 | |
| 3 | Ṁ176 | |
| 4 | Ṁ132 | |
| 5 | Ṁ131 |
I plan to resolve to 160-189:
Le Monde https://www.lemonde.fr/en/les-decodeurs/article/2024/07/07/2024-french-election-results-chart-and-map-of-second-round-winners_6676976_8.html 182
Al Jazeera https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/7/8/french-election-results-no-party-secured-a-majority-so-whats-next 188
Bloomberg https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-french-election-results/ 178 Politco.eu https://www.politico.eu/article/france-left-wing-marine-le-pen-far-right-national-rally-jordan-bardella-seats-new-popular-front/ 188
AP https://apnews.com/article/france-election-left-far-right-macron-7c61d22e610c8ceef133e26bd8c847ee "just over 180 seats"
CNN https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/france-election-runoff-results-07-07-24-intl/index.html 182
BBC https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0478d1zrldo 182
France24 https://www.france24.com/en/france/20240709-🔴-live-coalition-talks-ramp-up-in-france-with-revived-left-dominating-hung-parliament 182
I couldn't find any mainstream media source supportive of the NFP 191 seat estimate outside of this American electoral blogger (albeit one I like and follow the work of). https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12guAVEBrU3nk7lh6zqCozzfzKCP4ZDsK8isC1TOiWYY/edit?pli=1&gid=2050634150#gid=2050634150
In the future, I will specify a source, likely Le Monde. I apologize for not including a source. I did not realize how unclear the coalitions would be before the election. I anticipated shifts after.
NYT lists 178 (lower than Le Monde's 182) but then also includes this paragraph:
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/08/world/europe/france-election-maps.html
"The biggest surprise on Sunday was the triumph of the New Popular Front, a coalition of left-wing parties that is now the dominant force in a bloc of about 190 lawmakers and that has emerged as the lower house’s leading political group."
lmao
Le Monde classificaiton is pretty mysterious:
You'll notice that there are 182 in NFP.
But when you click on the individual seats for "divers gauche" (misc left):
-6 are explicitly PS (which is in the NFP coalition)
-1 is LFI's equivalent in Guyana (which is in the NFP coalition)
-1 is in Tavini party (which is French Polynesian minor party in the NFP coalition)
-1 is in NFP coalition equivalent in Martinique
I think that's why the 191 number from my sources on twitter is different from the 182 on Le Monde.
I'm biased (I'm a holder of >190) but I do think that's a more fair number, kind of like how currently the democrat "coalition" in the US senate has 51 seats, despite explicitly only having 47 members (and 4 independents that caucus with the dems).
@BrunoParga ya the problem is how do you assess if the candidate says they're part of NFP (and coalitions / votes with them) whereas the party says they aren't (to discourage candidates from primary-ing their preferred candidates) while still letting them into the caucus
@BrunoParga the “dissident” classification refers to those in the party that ran against the party’s endorsed candidate in the first round.
@BrunoParga so in a sense, it would be like if the democratic party didn’t include - for example - members of the squad (not a perfect metaphor, perhaps instead democrats that primaried senior dems and won) in their seat count, but still caucused with them and included them in committee appointments, etc.
It’s kind of like in the US senate. most ppl would say that there are 51 dems in the senate currently; even though Sanders, King, Sinema, and Manchin are all independents, they all caucus with the dems and are granted committee appointments accordingly.
@TraderBoyTraderBoy1 how will you resolve if different sources are giving different numbers of seats for NFP depending on different definitions of the coalition?
Hum there should be an official list of the NFP candidates somewhere, right ?
I heard about some candidates using the name and some graphics closely resembling these of the NFP but not approved by it, and often running against a true NFP candidate (as far as I know there is never more than one true NFP candidate per district).
I seriously think these candidates should not be counted as NFP, and finding an official list should do the job.
If Le Monde didn't screw up, there is now only one resolution that is mathematically possible (177 seats won by NFP so far, 11 unattributed seats remaining)...I must admit to @Ziddletwix that they're kinda sending Lisan Al-Gaib vibes right now, for seeing that 3 hours before I did while most projections said otherwise
(Actually there's also an implicit assumption that my sleepy ass can still do basic math at that time of the day)
If these PS candidates did not run under the banner of the NFP, why should they be counted as NFP ?
Some part of the LR coalitioned with the RN, and LR is more divided than ever. Should we count all LR MPs as RN allies ? None of them as RN allies ? It seems pretty clear to me that we should count as RN allies these and only these who were officially declared as RN allies
@Mich actually they DID run under the banner of the NFP, but the NFP disavowed them (because they primaried other NFP candidates essentially)... idk it's all complicated, I hate France
@Mich ya... I won't complain if this market resolves to 160-189, because that's what basically every news source is reporting currently. However, I do believe that 191 or 192 is the "true" number of NFP-aligned seats in this parliament, judging from local reporting and obsessive twitter elections enthusiasts.
@benshindel yup, I think we just use different heuristics here. You’re looking at expected alignment, while I consider official etiquettes and think that in this context a person claiming they’re part of an official group that disavowed them is not part of it.