Resolution criteria:
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, within 30 days following the election of the next pope, a majority of reputable international news outlets and Catholic Church analysts characterize the new pope as either "conservative" or "liberal." If the majority consensus is that the pope is "conservative," the market resolves to "Yes." If the majority consensus is that the pope is "liberal," the market resolves to "No." If there is no clear majority consensus (as determined by a panel of three leading LLMs), the market will resolve as "N/A."
Background:
Pope Francis passed away on April 21, 2025, at the age of 88. His papacy was marked by efforts to modernize the Church, promote inclusivity, and address social justice issues, which garnered both praise and criticism from different factions within the Church. (reuters.com)
The process to elect a new pope involves a conclave of cardinals under the age of 80, who will gather in the Sistine Chapel to vote in secrecy until a two-thirds majority is reached. Pope Francis significantly reshaped the College of Cardinals by appointing many from non-European regions, potentially influencing the profile of the next pope. (theweek.com)
Potential successors include:
Cardinal Pietro Parolin: An Italian diplomat and Vatican Secretary of State, seen as a moderate and a diplomatic compromise candidate. (reuters.com)
Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle: A Filipino known as the "Asian Francis," with deep pastoral experience and a progressive stance on social issues. (reuters.com)
Cardinal Péter Erdő: A Hungarian cardinal viewed as a conservative with strong Church legal ties and linguistic skills. (reuters.com)
Cardinal Robert Sarah: From Guinea, known for his conservative views on liturgical practices and social issues. (en.wikipedia.org)
Cardinal Raymond Burke: An American cardinal and firm conservative, known for his critiques of Pope Francis and traditionalist views. (en.wikipedia.org)
The ideological orientation of the next pope will significantly influence the direction of the Catholic Church, affecting its approach to social issues, internal reforms, and global outreach.
Considerations:
The terms "conservative" and "liberal" can be subjective and may vary in interpretation across different cultures and media outlets. Traders should consider the potential for varied perspectives and the importance of a clear majority consensus in determining the market's resolution.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ22 | |
| 2 | Ṁ18 | |
| 3 | Ṁ18 | |
| 4 | Ṁ14 | |
| 5 | Ṁ13 |
Gemini:
Based on the election of the new Pope, the market should resolve to NO.
The individual elected as the next Pope, Robert Francis Prevost (Pope Leo XIV), is widely regarded by Catholic and international media as a moderate or centrist candidate, who bridges the progressive and conservative factions within the College of Cardinals.
While he holds some conservative positions on specific doctrinal matters (such as opposing the ordination of women as deacons), his overall papacy is seen as continuing the pastoral focus of his predecessor, Pope Francis, on social justice, migration, and outreach to marginalized groups. Crucially, his election was considered a victory for the centrists and a move away from the hardline conservative candidates who sought a full reversal of the previous papacy's agenda.
The video below discusses the range of candidates who were being considered to succeed Pope Francis.