Given the recent layoffs and possible relocations within the federal government, what will be the average price of a house on March 1st 2027?

Background

Arlington, Virginia, is a highly desirable suburb of Washington D.C. with a strong real estate market historically driven by its proximity to federal jobs, excellent schools, and urban amenities. As of early 2025, the median home price in Arlington is approximately $810,670 though prices vary significantly by neighborhood.

Recent developments affecting the Arlington housing market include:

• Federal job cuts that could potentially reduce demand for housing in the area

• Return-to-office mandates that might increase demand for homes closer to D.C.

• Tight housing inventory that has been supporting price growth despite higher mortgage rates

• Arlington's continued desirability due to its top-rated schools and amenities

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to the average (mean) home sale price in Arlington County, Virginia, as of March 1st, 2027. The resolution will be based on Zillows average home value for Arlington VA.

https://www.zillow.com/home-values/30258/arlington-va/

Considerations

• Federal government employment policies between now and 2027 could significantly impact housing demand in Arlington

• Changes in mortgage rates could affect affordability and pricing

• Development projects and housing supply changes in Arlington could influence inventory levels

• Regional economic factors beyond federal employment could play a role in housing demand

• Remote work policies may continue to evolve, potentially affecting where people choose to live relative to their employers