
Will we have a terrestrial space elevator by 2085?
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1kṀ12682085
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Resolves YES if the following is satisfied:
A tether from earth to a counterweight beyond geostationary orbit
Vehicles with capacity to lift over 1,000kg payload to geostationary orbit (presumably bigger but let's make it easy) by traversing the tether
One successful deployment of such a vehicle and payload
There was talk about doing this by 2050 (China, Japan), but I suspect that was a little overly optimistic. Other markets on manifold predict a start date (at time of writing) of 2069.
Note that the above conditions could be satisfied during construction - e.g. the first payload could be part of a geostationary platform that comprises part of the overall system.
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