Will we have a terrestrial space elevator by 2085?
23
1kṀ1268
2085
15%
chance

Resolves YES if the following is satisfied:

  • A tether from earth to a counterweight beyond geostationary orbit

  • Vehicles with capacity to lift over 1,000kg payload to geostationary orbit (presumably bigger but let's make it easy) by traversing the tether

  • One successful deployment of such a vehicle and payload

There was talk about doing this by 2050 (China, Japan), but I suspect that was a little overly optimistic. Other markets on manifold predict a start date (at time of writing) of 2069.

Note that the above conditions could be satisfied during construction - e.g. the first payload could be part of a geostationary platform that comprises part of the overall system.

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