50% chance. Resolves YES if the following is satisfied: A tether from earth to a counterweight beyond geostationary orbit Vehicles with capacity to lift over 1,000kg payload to geostationary orbit (presumably bigger but let's make it easy) by traversing the tether One successful deployment of such a vehicle and payload There was talk about doing this by 2050 (China, Japan), but I suspect that was a little overly optimistic. My other, more optimistic market on this is at https://manifold.markets/Tomoffer/will-we-have-a-terrestrial-space-el?r=VG9tb2ZmZXI Note that the above conditions could be satisfied during construction - e.g. the first payload could be part of a geostationary platform that comprises part of the overall system.