Will any rights be granted to a silicon-based intelligence before 2050?
Will any rights be granted to a silicon-based intelligence before 2050?
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Will any government - or legal framework applicable to more than, let's say, 1 million people - provide legal rights (along the lines of a right to exist) to an intelligence based on silicon?
This could be, e.g., an AI or a full/partial brain upload from a biological intelligence.
This might need some finessing and I'm not a lawyer. The spirit of the question is, broadly, when will the existence of intelligence existing within a computer be sufficiently established that society deems it worthy of legal recognition?
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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