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FIDE Chess Candidates 2026 Round 11 Predictions
13
Ṁ100Ṁ1.4k
resolved Apr 11
Resolved
NO
Giri (W) beats Esipenko (B)
Resolved
NO
Nakamura (W) beats Wei Yi (B)
Resolved
NO
Caruana (W) beats Sindarov (B)
Resolved
NO
Praggnanandhaa (W) beats Bluebaum (B)

Resolution

Round 11 starts on April 11 at 8:30 AM EST. Results will be determined by the official FIDE Candidates Tournament 2026 standings, available at Chess.com's live results page or the official event website. Players receive 1 point for a win, ½ point for a draw, and 0 points for a loss. The question "Player X (W) beats Player Y (B)" will resolve to YES if Player X beats Player Y. It will resolve to NO if the result is a draw or a loss.

Background

The 2026 Candidates Tournament is an eight-player tournament that determines the challenger for the World Chess Championship 2026. This event lasts from March 28th to April 16, 2026. This is a double round-robin tournament with 14 rounds. Each player will have the opportunity to play with white and black against the seven other players.

Player ratings pre-Candidates are as follows:

Hikaru Nakamura: 2810 (World #2)

Fabiano Caruana: 2795 (World #3)

Wei Yi: 2754 (World #8)

Anish Giri: 2753 (World #9)

Javokhir Sindarov: 2745 (World #11)

Praggnanandhaa R: 2741 (World #12)

Andrey Esipenko: 2698 (World #32)

Matthias Bluebaum: 2698 (World #34)

Live ratings are available at 2700chess.com

Updated standings after Round 10 are as follows:

1. Sindarov - 8.0

2. Giri - 6.0

3. Caruana - 5.0

(T4). Nakamura - 4.5

(T4). Wei Yi - 4.5

(T4). Bluebaum - 4.5

7. Praggnanandhaa - 4.0

8. Esipenko - 3.5

Round 11 Pairings

Giri (W) vs. Esipenko (B)

Nakamura (W) vs. Wei Yi (B)

Caruana (W) vs. Sindarov (B)

Praggnanandhaa (W) vs. Bluebaum (B)

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@traders Round 12 predictions are available below. Nakamura, Wei Yi, Bluebaum, Pragg, and Esipenko are now mathematically eliminated from contention.

https://manifold.markets/TomOqhPy/fide-chess-candidates-2026-round-12?r=VG9tT3FoUHk

bought Ṁ10 YES

At this point, I am just betting on 'wishful thinking.' I expect many (most?) players just want this tournament done with