Obviously there will be bugs in the game. But this is getting at whether the game will have issues on release similar to, for instance, CDPR's Cyberpunk 2077. Here are some factors that would lead me to resolve YES:

• A story comes out in a major newspaper talking about issues in the game or negative reactions to the game's bugginess

• Bethesda releases an official apology

• A major service announces a special return policy making it easy for dissatisfied customers to return Starfield

• Multiple gaming-oriented news sites run multiple stories about major issues in the game (not just low review scores but issues that make the game entirely or partially unplayable)

Ultimately this is a subjective decision, since the exact way things would go is hard to pin down precisely. But I would be looking for signs of actual concrete issues affecting the release of the game, not just normal gamer complaining.

I won't be betting in this market.