I am currently 1st place in my Bronze league with 8 days to go and about 9.5x as much mana earned as the user in 2nd place (currently @Unjires (EDIT: and has negative profit? wtf?)).
Resolves YES iff according to https://manifold.markets/leagues in the Calculated Dragons Bronze League at the end of Season 8,
(my Mana earned)/(Mana earned by 2nd place user) >= 10.
Otherwise resolves NO.
I reserve the right to bet on this market though I doubt I will.
I reserve the right to resolve N/A if I believe that my mana earned or the mana earned by the 2nd place user has been manipulated unfairly for the purposes of this market.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ122 | |
| 2 | Ṁ14 | |
| 3 | Ṁ4 | |
| 4 | Ṁ2 |
People are also trading
@mattyb Thank you. Certainly a step up after this tragedy https://manifold.markets/TobyBW/will-i-rank-up-to-diamond-this-mont?r=VG9ieUJX
@TobyBW i think you’ll do it. you’ve got the EoY market momentum. congrats, enjoy my mana 😊
im seeing a near miss… (with time left on the shot clock)
@traders be aware that the 2nd placers will likely have the opportunity to get another bonus before the league ends
still just 1000M stands in my way. I have been holding up close to that for a while now, though it will still be hard. Seems like second place might be chairduck instead of Unijires. In unrelated news, I am 3rd place out of all bronze leagues, behind Levi who is banned and Nick who deleted his account.
I still gotta earn 900M + 10x the bonuses Unjires earns over the last few days. But there are still a lot of opportunities for free mana if you're looking for them (just got a free 300 from https://manifold.markets/3t3rnalm3rc/who-will-win-the-2023-fifa-puskas-a). And I can also earn a lot fairly in very short amounts of time (see my net worth graph) or lose a lot in very short amounts of time (also see my net worth graph).
@TobyBW Let's just call this a hedge. Still have much more incentive to try to make this happen than to prevent it.
you’ve got fewer streak bonuses than your closest competitor. So basically, we all get 25M per day, which the person in 2nd seems decent at collecting.
We’re close to the 10x ratio now, which means you’ll need to grow around 200M/day to keep up your competitor just showing up at making a single trade+share - more days than not. You’ve only grown by 500M this week. Either their profits will need to continue in the red at a greater pace, or you’ll need to start profiting a bit faster…. (IMO), but please prove me wrong!
@mattyb Yeah I agree it will be difficult. The year end markets definitely complicate things though. Could help or hurt me significantly in this quest.
@mattyb FYI, I do not consider that as "manipulated unfairly for the purposes of this market." I put that clause in the market description but I find it unlikely that it will be used. If I do believe that such manipulation has occurred, I will explain in a comment and allow responses before resolving.