Context: https://www.wsj.com/tech/x-ceo-linda-yaccarino-says-platform-should-turn-profit-in-2024-8575a1c
> X Corp. Chief Executive Linda Yaccarino said on Wednesday the company is “just about break even” in terms of operating cash-flow and should turn a profit early next year.
Resolves YES if they are profitable in either Q1 or Q2, 2024.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ49 | |
| 2 | Ṁ46 | |
| 3 | Ṁ42 | |
| 4 | Ṁ30 | |
| 5 | Ṁ30 |
Resolving a market like this is tricky because twitter is a private company and there's a lot of unknown variables which would determine its profitability.
If you adhered to a very high standard of proof, this market would always resolve either YES or N/A and never NO. Because if the positive outcome happens there will usually be solid proof, e.g. Elon bragging on twitter about its profits. And then it's an easy yes. But if the thing doesn't happen it's almost always N/A because the company wouldn't want to advertise it's lack of profit, so you wouldn't have enough hard evidence to resolve this NO, only N/A.
Because of this imbalance it's only fair to set a much lower standard of proof to the NO side , otherwise it wouldn't really make sense to bet NO on a low evidence market like this.
So I'm resolving this NO based on what @Gen said. If twitter was profitable, Elon would have very proudly advertised that fact or we would have seen other indications of it's profability.