This is essentially the same question as https://manifold.markets/KongoLandwalker/what-is-your-intuition-about-this-p but with higher initial probability (ie. closer to 1).

We have two different independent potential events A and B.

Somebody says: "Probability of A is 0.5. Event B is two times more likely than A."

What number comes to your mind as probability of B?

1) "Multiply the absolute value". 0.5*2=1

2) "Multiply the chances". There were 50 "tickets in a hat" and only 25 of them was suitable for event A, 25 invalid. (0.5=25/(25+25)). We multiply the suitable tickets and don't touch any other.

50/(50+25)=50/75=2/3

This question is just about how you interpret the phrase "more likely".

What is your intuition about this probability comparison?

We have two different independent potential events A and B. Somebody sais: "Probability of A is 0.02. Event B is ten times more likely than A." What number comes to your mind as probability of B? 1) "Multiply the absolute value". 0.02*10=0.2 2) "Multiply the chances". There were 50 "tickets in a hat" and only one of them was suitable for event A, 49 invalid. (0.02=1/(49+1)). We multiply the suitable tickets and don't touch any other. 10/(49+10)=10/59=0.169 This question is just about how you interpret the phrase "more likely".