Will 100 or more people bet on this question?
101
866
315
resolved Dec 24
Resolved
YES

By 100 people i mean more than 99 people :)

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predicted YES

bought Ṁ1,000 of YES

bought Ṁ100 of YES
  1. 1 more does it

bought Ṁ5 of NO

How will you distinguish people from accounts? 🙄

predicted NO

@portfolio No, I will resolved based on this count

predicted NO

@TobiasSowaaed So can people just use multiple accounts to hit the high-enough value, even though these sock puppet accounts will earn less than a couple of mana which would suggest something fishy went on?

predicted NO

@portfolio Maybe there is. Tbh my intention with the best was just a funny gamble with the probability being unknown. If people use multiple account it should be against terms of agreement which is not my place to resolve I think

bought Ṁ32 of YES

@portfolio lol these markets always resolve yes, also change your name back

predicted NO

@brubsby Well it only resolves yea because the owner of the bet set the bar too low. There should be a equilibrium number where the true probability is 50%

predicted NO

@brubsby I can't, this would cause me to break my promise in

predicted YES

@TobiasSowaaed I'm trying to find that equilibrium point:
/jks/will-500-traders-participate-in-thi
/jks/will-1000-traders-participate-in-th
/jks/will-2024-traders-participate-in-th
Though by sharing the markets here, I wonder how much I've changed it lol

>100,100, and >99 are three different things…

predicted NO

@ShadowyZephyr I clarified in the description

@TobiasSowaaed You didn't "clarify", you said something completely different in the description. Seems like you're intentionally trying to mislead people.

predicted NO

@IsaacKing My intention is not to mislead anyone. How isn’t the description clear?

@TobiasSowaaed The description is clear; it clarifies that you chose to title your question incorrectly, and you still have not provided any good reason why you did that.

predicted NO

@IsaacKing

First reason: my intention was always 100 people or more for it to be

Second reason: the original title was “Will 100 people bet on this question” which indirectly states it’s 99+ people As the operator should be very clear if it was Exactly 100 people not more or less.

predicted YES

@TobiasSowaaed you should have made this market when we were still in Bronze League, you would have beaten me if so!

FYI 99 and 100 are different numbers. I can get confirmation from a mathematician if it would help.

bought Ṁ0 of YES

Do limit orders count?

predicted NO

@tfae

If this count hit 100 or more then i resolve as yes, idk if limit orders goes into that count

predicted YES

guys if enough people bet YES, it's literally free Mana

bought Ṁ20 of YES
bought Ṁ10 of NO

It doesn't make much sense to bet yes when market is very high. It also doesn't make sense to bet no if there are already many traders. Thats why I predict no. But it's a nice idea to get trader bonuses

predicted NO

@MrLuke255 The days upto the deadline it Will most likely go crazy cause a lot of people bet no and all of a sudden people will bet yes. This bet is more for fun and more of a gamble for sure:)

bought Ṁ10 of NO

@TobiasSowaaed Betting no if it's very close to 100 traders doesn't make any sense, other than just loosing on purpose and doing a disservice to those who bet earlier

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