The Context Every February, South Africa’s Finance Minister delivers the National Budget Speech. One of the most watched metrics is the "Sin Tax", the excise duties on alcohol and tobacco.
With the government facing a significant fiscal deficit and aiming for a "primary budget surplus," there is a constant tug-of-war between raising revenue for social grants/infrastructure and the risk of fueling the country's massive illicit cigarette trade (which currently accounts for over 50% of the market).
The Historical Baseline
2024 Budget: Increased by ~6.7% - 7.2% (above inflation).
2025 Budget: Increased by 4.75% (roughly in line with inflation).
2026 Forecast: Analysts are divided on whether the governement will opt for a "pro-growth" modest hike or a "revenue-focused" aggressive hike.
Technical Criteria This market tracks the specific excise duty on a pack of 20 cigarettes.
Current Rate (2025/26): R22.81 per pack of 20.
The Target: A 5% increase would mean a new rate of R23.95 or higher.
Resolution Criteria
YES if the official 2026 Budget Review (published 25 Feb 2026) announces a new excise duty for "Cigarettes" that is R23.95 per 20 cigarettes or higher.
NO if the new rate is R23.94 or lower.
Source: The official National Treasury "Budget Review 2026" document (specifically the "Excise duties on tobacco products" table).
Timing: The market will close on Wednesday, 25 February 2026, before the Minister begins the speech.
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