Will Open AI launch a social media app by the end of 2026?

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resolved Oct 2

Resolved

YES

ALL

Sam Altman recently joked about this:

https://x.com/sama/status/1895230925753233763

I would count anything that hosts user-generated content for the primary purpose of sharing it with other human users. For example, some social media apps I've used are Reddit, YouTube, Quora, or Discord.

The current ChatGPT app has the ability to share chats with other people, but it doesn't count because that's not the primary purpose.

I also wouldn't count an app that only involves communicating with AIs such as SocialAI.

Update 2025-05-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The app must have a comment section for users to talk to one another.

Update 2025-09-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - To count as user-generated content, users must either:
- provide source images/videos, or
- write detailed prompts that generate content they then share with other users.
- Simply watching or choosing topics for auto-generated AI videos does not count.
- A comment section on content enabling user-to-user discussion is required; passive consumption without interaction is not "social."

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@traders This market seems to have spiked on the news about a Sora-powered clone of TikTok, but the reports that I see so far likely wouldn't satisfy the conditions for this market:

https://www.engadget.com/ai/openai-will-reportedly-release-a-tiktok-like-social-app-alongside-sora-2-205842527.html

In particular, this article says there is "no option for the user to upload photos or videos".

I have a stake of around 2000 NO here, but I'll refrain from betting further in case this becomes a little ambiguous.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 your description doesn't say anything about uploading photos or videos

@ItsMe My definition was "user-generated content".

I regret not being clearer before about to what extent AI is involved in creating the content.

If users provide source images/videos or write detailed prompts to generate videos to create and share with other users, that would count as sufficient user involvement to be user-generated.

If users simply open the app and start watching, or if they select a topic and AI generates videos on that topic, that wouldn't count.

I also included the condition that there's a comment section on the content. The way I define it, people passively consuming the same AI-generated content without interacting with one another isn't social.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 They do have comment sections, I think. They also have a "cameo" feature, where you take a video of yourself and it gets edited by the AI

@ItsMe this looks pretty clear about the intent

@ItsMe Okay, if it has both of those it would definitely be a YES then.

bought Ṁ7,000 YES

Is there any remaining ambiguity (edit: apparently ppl are buying no at market price, ping me if that's you)

@Bayesian aren't you the one who bought no

@ItsMe I’m my worst enemy

filled a Ṁ1,000 YES at 99.0% order

@TimothyJohnson5c16 confirming the app both has comment sections and the ability to upload photos of yourself to insert your / your friends likeness into reels

@Luxeed Thanks, that's a clear YES.

@Soli @TimothyJohnson5c16 Does this market resolve yes if solis market resolves yes

@ashly_webb I think my definition is a bit stricter, but I'm not certain.

What about Sora homepage? The explore page has pictures/video generated by other users (albeit it is not 'user-generated' as much as it is 'user-prompted') Users can like the pictures, but there are no comments. It's kinda like Pinterest I think.

@ScipioFabius Hmmm, I guess that technically fits the definition I gave, but it isn't what I had in mind. So I'm going to add another condition - it needs to have a comment section for users to talk to one another.

If anyone bet YES based on the Sora homepage and lost mana, let me know and I'll reimburse you.