Will all of the swing states move similarly in the 2024 election (based on std dev of change in margin from 2020)?
Plus
4
Ṁ928Nov 13
9%
<1.0%
14%
1.0-1.5%
13%
1.5-2.0%
27%
2.0-2.5%
18%
2.5-3.0%
18%
>3.0%
For the purposes of this market, the seven swing states are: PA, MI, WI, NV, AZ, GA, NC.
The margin swing measures the change in margin from the previous presidential election.
For comparison, in 2020, the margin swing for these seven states was:
NC: -2.31%
NV: 0.03%
WI: 1.40%
PA: 1.88%
MI: 3.01%
AZ: 3.81%
GA: 5.37%
(Positive numbers represent a shift toward Biden, and negative numbers represent a shift toward Trump.)
The standard deviation of these seven values is 2.4%, so in 2020 this market would have resolved to 2.0-2.5%.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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