For the purposes of this market, the seven swing states are: PA, MI, WI, NV, AZ, GA, NC.

The margin swing measures the change in margin from the previous presidential election.

For comparison, in 2020, the margin swing for these seven states was:

NC: -2.31%

NV: 0.03%

WI: 1.40%

PA: 1.88%

MI: 3.01%

AZ: 3.81%

GA: 5.37%

(Positive numbers represent a shift toward Biden, and negative numbers represent a shift toward Trump.)

The standard deviation of these seven values is 2.4%, so in 2020 this market would have resolved to 2.0-2.5%.