Will all of the swing states move similarly in the 2024 election (based on std dev of change in margin from 2020)?
4
Ṁ645
Nov 13
7%
<1.0%
20%
1.0-1.5%
19%
1.5-2.0%
25%
2.0-2.5%
16%
2.5-3.0%
13%
>3.0%

For the purposes of this market, the seven swing states are: PA, MI, WI, NV, AZ, GA, NC.

The margin swing measures the change in margin from the previous presidential election.

For comparison, in 2020, the margin swing for these seven states was:

NC: -2.31%

NV: 0.03%

WI: 1.40%

PA: 1.88%

MI: 3.01%

AZ: 3.81%

GA: 5.37%

(Positive numbers represent a shift toward Biden, and negative numbers represent a shift toward Trump.)

The standard deviation of these seven values is 2.4%, so in 2020 this market would have resolved to 2.0-2.5%.

#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election
#Election margins
#Electoral College
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4 Comments
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Is this question

"What will be the standard deviation of the margin shift towards Biden in the set { PA, MI, WI, NV, AZ, GA, NC }"

?

I mean, is this the question being asked?

@BrunoParga Yeah, do you think that works better as the title?

@TimothyJohnson5c16 something like that probably works better, yes ☺️

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