Will the next OpenAI model have a stupid fucking name? [Must be plus-tier accessible]
257
1kṀ66k
Sep 25
19%
chance
10

Will the next openAI model available on chatgpt.com have a stupid fucking name?


Existing models available:
GPT-4o

o3

o4-mini

o4-mini-high

GPT-4.5

GPT-4.1

GPT-4.1-mini

Will the next model have a stupid fucking name?

Potential stupid fucking names:

GPT-4.6-mini
o4-mini-super

GPT-MAX

Names I don't consider stupid:

o5

GPT-5


I will not be betting on this market. I will extend if no new models show up. If multiple models are released at the same time, I will resolve NA.

Plus tier accessible models only.

  • Update 2025-06-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated that o3-pro is considered a stupid fucking name.

  • Update 2025-06-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated that GPT-25 is considered a stupid fucking name.

  • Update 2025-06-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated they will resolve based on a new model appearing on their own ChatGPT.com Plus tier account.

  • Update 2025-06-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator clarified the market's N/A condition regarding 'multiple models released at the same time':

    • 'At the same time' specifically means multiple new models appearing simultaneously when the creator loads their own Plus tier account.

    • Models released on the same day but not appearing as simultaneously new to the creator upon checking do not automatically trigger an N/A resolution.

    • In a scenario where a model with a 'stupid fucking name' and a non-stupid model are released on the same day (but not observed as simultaneously new by the creator), if the 'stupid fucking name' model is the 'next' one identified, the market would resolve YES.

      ^^^simultaneously = a reasonable like one hour period where webcache could be excuse instead

  • Update 2025-06-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated that GPT-5o is considered a stupid fucking name.

  • Update 2025-07-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to 'ChatGPT agent' being raised as a potential candidate, the creator emphasized the criterion that the model must be 'available on chatgpt.com', implying this is a key factor in determining if 'ChatGPT agent' qualifies for resolution.

  • Update 2025-07-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to questions about 'ChatGPT agent', the creator clarified the criteria for a 'model available on chatgpt.com':

    • An entity that is only listed as a tool (like 'deep research') will not be considered a 'model' and will not trigger this market's resolution.

    • If 'ChatGPT agent' is only available as a tool, it will not be considered for resolution.

  • Update 2025-07-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a question about 'GPT Agent', the creator has stated it is not considered a stupid fucking name.

    • The reasoning is that 'Agent' is a descriptive term that "makes sense," unlike a name like GPT MAX, which is considered stupid.

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bought Ṁ809 YES

Which devices support ChatGPT agent?

ChatGPT agent is available on web, mobile (iOS/Android), and on our desktop apps (MacOS and Windows).”

https://help.openai.com/en/articles/11794342-chatgpt-agent

Seems like it will be available on chatgpt.com

Personally I think the name is pretty fucking stupid, it doesn’t roll off the tongue, they should have called it just “agent”

@ThomasPoltoranos it is called "Agent" in the UI

boughtṀ99YES

@bh wanna bet way more? I'll bet huge volume if you're interested.

oh nvm no balance. mb

bought Ṁ300 YES

https://openai.com/index/chatgpt-agent-system-card/

“ChatGPT agent is a new agentic model in the same family as OpenAI o3, that combines the strengths of deep research and Operator.”

https://help.openai.com/en/articles/11794342-chatgpt-agent

“ChatGPT agent is available to users on ChatGPT Pro, Plus, and Team plans. It will be available to Enterprise and Edu users in the coming weeks.”

@Bandors is this a stupid fucking name

wow this is one of the least stupid names i've ever heard

@bh waking up... let me get some coffee. Do note the first sentence fine print: "Will the next openAI model available on chatgpt.com

@Bayesian lol I may have underestimated the subjectivity of this market... but my understanding of the author's intent is "logical progression (GPT n+1, o n+1) non-stupid; tacking on random words (GPT Max, potentially GPT Agent) stupid"

@Bandors hm, i didn't consider that deep research or operator might not be considered models available on chatgpt.com, bc they were reconfigured to appear merely as "tools" that models can use, but fair, rip, i am dumb for betting confidently

as in, it's available in chatgpt.com, and it's clearly a new model, but it doesn't appear in model selection, it instead appears, like deep research does, in "tools", which is a bit misleading. Just making sure you mean the models in the top left model selector only, and if so if you could clarify that in the description i think that would be good

@Bayesian I did not list deep research as as model because it's on a tool list. If Agent is only a tool, I don't think it would cause this market to resolve.

@bh GPT MAX is stupid because like wtf is max? but GPT Agent at least makes sense...

Wow the o3 pro thing not meeting the criteria is really fucking stupid

@DarklyMade It was stated from market creation that it has to be plus tier accessible + I have to see it available on my own account. Before all these AI edits it wasn't even a long description

BTW I am going to extend this market if there's no new model by closing time. (July 25th) Any objections?

Also related, also incompatible with such a high probability here: https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-aug-20?r=Ymg

Will GPT-5 be released before Aug 2025?
56% chance. Resolves as YES if GPT-5 is released before August 1st 2025 Questions with the same criteria: @/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-feb-20-8c957783cf35 @/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-mar-20-04aa9e145a57 @/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-apr-20-e3c7a09c7840 @/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-may-20-370feb584056 @/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jun-20-da21ae1ffcdd @/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jul-20-09d441d0d15e @/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-aug-20-f155aef83a4b @/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-sep-20-b4b9e56da814 @/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-oct-20-7426e1e5392e @/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-nov-20-de1a0d74aaab @/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-dec-20-0a804511572e @/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jan-20-6e2ba03f7479 @/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-feb-20-5a18f221c267 @/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-mar-20 @/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-apr-20 @/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-may-20 @/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jun-20 @/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jul-20 @/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-aug-20 (this question) @/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-sep-20 @/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-oct-20 @/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-nov-20 @/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-dec-20 @/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jan-20 @/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-feb-20 In order to qualify as released in the context of this question, GPT-5 must either be accessible to any consumer willing to pay, or free to access for anyone, in at least 4 of the following countries: USA, UK, France, Japan, India, Canada, Australia, Germany, Italy before the specified date. A release of the text component alone is sufficient to resolve this question as YES. However, a staged release (a release of a smaller model than the largest version of GPT-5) is not considered to be the "release" in the context of this question. If access is restricted (e.g. due to resource availability limitations) at this question's end date, then this market resolves as YES only if the majority of existing paying accounts on OpenAI's premium offer that were subscribed a week prior to this end date can use the model. This must be true in at least 4 of the countries listed above. The anywhere on earth time zone is used for this question.

No new model- I have extended this market for another month.

"o4-mini-high" is definitely stupid and sounds like an edible or pre-roll from the dispensary.

Or are YES bettors expecting a non-GPT5 model to be released ~this month, followed by GPT-5 later this summer?

Would GPT-5o qualify as a stupid name?

Also, I disagree that "o5" is a non-stupid name but it's your market so you can define "stupid" however you want

@MichaelDickens Yes, GPT-5o would be a stupid fucking name.

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