Will the next openAI model available on chatgpt.com have a stupid fucking name?
Existing models available:
GPT-4o
o3
o4-mini
o4-mini-high
GPT-4.5
GPT-4.1
GPT-4.1-mini
Will the next model have a stupid fucking name?
Potential stupid fucking names:
GPT-4.6-mini
o4-mini-super
GPT-MAX
Names I don't consider stupid:
o5
GPT-5
I will not be betting on this market. I will extend if no new models show up. If multiple models are released at the same time, I will resolve NA.
Plus tier accessible models only.
Update 2025-06-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated that o3-pro is considered a stupid fucking name.
Update 2025-06-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated that GPT-25 is considered a stupid fucking name.
Update 2025-06-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated they will resolve based on a new model appearing on their own ChatGPT.com Plus tier account.
Update 2025-06-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator clarified the market's N/A condition regarding 'multiple models released at the same time':
'At the same time' specifically means multiple new models appearing simultaneously when the creator loads their own Plus tier account.
Models released on the same day but not appearing as simultaneously new to the creator upon checking do not automatically trigger an N/A resolution.
In a scenario where a model with a 'stupid fucking name' and a non-stupid model are released on the same day (but not observed as simultaneously new by the creator), if the 'stupid fucking name' model is the 'next' one identified, the market would resolve YES.
^^^simultaneously = a reasonable like one hour period where webcache could be excuse instead
Update 2025-06-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated that GPT-5o is considered a stupid fucking name.
Update 2025-07-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to 'ChatGPT agent' being raised as a potential candidate, the creator emphasized the criterion that the model must be 'available on chatgpt.com', implying this is a key factor in determining if 'ChatGPT agent' qualifies for resolution.
Update 2025-07-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to questions about 'ChatGPT agent', the creator clarified the criteria for a 'model available on chatgpt.com':
An entity that is only listed as a tool (like 'deep research') will not be considered a 'model' and will not trigger this market's resolution.
If 'ChatGPT agent' is only available as a tool, it will not be considered for resolution.
Update 2025-07-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a question about 'GPT Agent', the creator has stated it is not considered a stupid fucking name.
The reasoning is that 'Agent' is a descriptive term that "makes sense," unlike a name like GPT MAX, which is considered stupid.
People are also trading
“Which devices support ChatGPT agent?
ChatGPT agent is available on web, mobile (iOS/Android), and on our desktop apps (MacOS and Windows).”
https://help.openai.com/en/articles/11794342-chatgpt-agent
Seems like it will be available on chatgpt.com
Personally I think the name is pretty fucking stupid, it doesn’t roll off the tongue, they should have called it just “agent”
https://openai.com/index/chatgpt-agent-system-card/
“ChatGPT agent is a new agentic model in the same family as OpenAI o3, that combines the strengths of deep research and Operator.”
https://help.openai.com/en/articles/11794342-chatgpt-agent
“ChatGPT agent is available to users on ChatGPT Pro, Plus, and Team plans. It will be available to Enterprise and Edu users in the coming weeks.”
@bh waking up... let me get some coffee. Do note the first sentence fine print: "Will the next openAI model available on chatgpt.com
@Bayesian lol I may have underestimated the subjectivity of this market... but my understanding of the author's intent is "logical progression (GPT n+1, o n+1) non-stupid; tacking on random words (GPT Max, potentially GPT Agent) stupid"
@Bandors hm, i didn't consider that deep research or operator might not be considered models available on chatgpt.com, bc they were reconfigured to appear merely as "tools" that models can use, but fair, rip, i am dumb for betting confidently
as in, it's available in chatgpt.com, and it's clearly a new model, but it doesn't appear in model selection, it instead appears, like deep research does, in "tools", which is a bit misleading. Just making sure you mean the models in the top left model selector only, and if so if you could clarify that in the description i think that would be good
@Bayesian I did not list deep research as as model because it's on a tool list. If Agent is only a tool, I don't think it would cause this market to resolve.
Wow the o3 pro thing not meeting the criteria is really fucking stupid
@DarklyMade It was stated from market creation that it has to be plus tier accessible + I have to see it available on my own account. Before all these AI edits it wasn't even a long description
BTW I am going to extend this market if there's no new model by closing time. (July 25th) Any objections?
Also related, also incompatible with such a high probability here: https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-aug-20?r=Ymg
Current price seems inconsistent with prices here: https://manifold.markets/ManifoldAI/when-will-openai-broadly-release-th