Will the current monkeypox outbreak reach >2000 infections?

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Ṁ3167

resolved Jun 14

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YES

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The number seems a good proxy for whether it grows out of control or not. Context: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak #Epidemic #ID #infectiousdisease #pox #Science May 20, 12:49pm: So yes I will resolve when the threshold is reached, or the outbrake seem to be over.

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Ok, Wikipedia lists 2,027 confirmed cases now. Going to reslove yes.

predictedYES

According to this June 4, 2022 press release by the World Health Organization, there are 780 confirmed cases in non-endemic countries (Table 1), 44 confirmed cases in endemic countries (Table 2), and 1,408 suspected cases in endemic countries (Table 2). If @TimP is counting suspected cases, this market should be resolved as Yes. https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2022-DON390

predictedYES

Will do so by end of week.

short global human coordination on outbreak containment as of (May 21, 2022 C.E.), long testing lag meaning cases underreported, long transmissibility and breakout escape velocity having already been reached.. hoping to be wrong

what if it grows by 1 case a day for the next 1900 days?

@EnopoletusHarding That would be annoying.

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