In 1 years time, what credence will John assign to the field of alignment converging toward primarlity working on decoding the internal language of neural nets?
4
49
Ṁ46Ṁ110
Jun 1
44%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BzYmJYECAc3xyCTt6/the-plan-2022-update
Resolution will be determined by the earliest statement John makes publically on his credences after 1st January 2024.
If, by 1st June 2024, John doesn't make any such statement, this question will result as N/A.
Get Ṁ200 play money
Sort by:
More related questions
AI Alignment questions
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
50% chance
Will OpenAI + an AI alignment organization announce a major breakthrough in AI alignment? (2024)
33% chance
Related questions
Will OpenAI's Superalignment project produce a significant breakthrough in alignment research before 2027?
42% chance
Neural Nets will generate at least 1 scientific breakthrough or novel theorem by the end of 2025
30% chance
In 2025, will I believe that aligning automated AI research AI should be the focus of the alignment community?
48% chance
Eliezer Yudkowsky is impressed by a machine learning model, and believes that the model may be very helpful for alignment research, by the end of 2026
29% chance
Will OpenAI announce a major breakthrough in AI alignment in 2024?
42% chance
Will an AI be able to convert recent mathematical results into a fully formal proofs that can be verified by a mainstream proof assistant by 2025?
23% chance
Will the OpenAI superalignment team believe that their goal has been achieved after 4 years?
27% chance
🐕 Will A.I. Achieve Significantly More, "Linguistic Temporal Understanding" by end of 2024?
36% chance