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Will Chesa Boudin be recalled by SF voters in 2022?
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Ṁ107Ṁ2k
resolved Jun 9
Resolved
YES
This market resolves to "YES" if, within 4 weeks of the election, the SF Chronicle declares that Chesa Boudin lost the recall election
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predictedYES
Seems like SF Chronicle has declared that Chesa Boudin lost the recall election. The current headline at https://www.sfchronicle.com/chesaboudin/ says "San Francisco D.A. Chesa Boudin was ousted in a historic recall. Here’s what happens next".
The margin is frankly astounding.
Glad nobody's betting in the dead of night.
predictedYES
Great questions Evan Conrad! You could add links to the source for the stats (e.g. "Auto theft is less than or equal to 4249") in the question. If possible, provide a Wayback Machine link so we can document the stats as of today.
predictedNO
@MichaelOsofsky Added! (here's the link here too: https://sfgov.org/scorecards/public-safety/violent-crime-rate-and-property-crime-rate )
predictedYES
@EvanConrad awesome!
predictedNO
- If the DA is recalled, will crime go down? https://manifold.markets/EvanConrad/if-sfs-da-chesa-boudin-is-recalled - If the DA is not recalled, will crime go down? https://manifold.markets/EvanConrad/if-sfs-da-chesa-boudin-is-not-recal
predictedNO
Personally betting a small amount no. I think the DA has a good chance of being recalled, but I'm not sure it's 83%.
Alright, consider: who is most likely to oppose Boudin. Asians. Unlikely voters basically by definition. SF is one of the few cities where %age White actually correlates with %age D. So I'm pretty sure most of these polls showing Boudin losing are actually skewed. SF is a very liberal city, it's supported all sorts of things in the past. And ideological candidates have had strong success in the D primaries this year. So what, exactly, is the reasoning for thinking Boudin will lose? https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=6&year=2020&f=0&off=62&elect=0 https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=6&year=2012&f=0&off=64&elect=0 https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=6&year=2020&f=0&off=63&elect=0
predictedYES
@EnopoletusHarding because I’m demographically representative of a major constituency (democrat caucasian bisexual tech-bro) and I voted to recall because my catalytic converter on my Prius has been stolen 4 times in 2 years
predictedYES
“Boudin's recall seems almost inevitable” according to https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/06/07/politics/california-primary-election-da-race/index.html
83,484 people signed a petition to get the recall measure on the ballot, or about 10% of the city (as required by law).
In the 2019 election, Chesa won a ranked choice voting in the final round with a 1.73% lead, or 2,832 votes. In 2019, chesa's original election, there were 170,532 ballots. In 2021, the election in which voters voted overwhelmingly not to recall gavin newsom, there were ~339,000k ballots. In 2022, the election in which voters voted overwhelmingly to recall the school board, there were 126,267 ballots.
Arbitrage available: https://manifold.markets/TedSuzman/will-san-franciscos-attorney-genera
^ "Of 800 voters likely to participate in the June 7 election, 68% said they would vote yes on recalling Boudin."
https://www.sfchronicle.com/sf/bayarea/heatherknight/article/D-A-Chesa-Boudin-recall-New-poll-of-S-F-voters-17005027.php

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