Background The U.S. Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is a recently established federal agency tasked with reducing government spending and improving operational efficiency across federal departments. Elon Musk currently serves as its head, having already implemented significant budget cuts, particularly in the Department of Education. Recent activities include diplomatic engagements, such as meeting with India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi to discuss bilateral collaborations.

Resolution Criteria This market will resolve to the year in which Elon Musk is officially removed from or leaves his position as head of DOGE. Resolution will be based on:

• Official government announcements

• Formal resignation letter or statement

• Executive order removing him from the position

• Congressional action resulting in his removal

The market will resolve to the year the departure becomes effective, not when it is announced. Note that Trump's term ends on Jan 20, 2029. If DOGE is dissolved while Musk is still head, this will count as being fired/removed from the position.

Considerations

• As this is a newly created department, there is no historical precedent for leadership transitions

• The position's term length and conditions for removal are not yet clearly established

• Political changes, such as new presidential administrations, could impact leadership tenure

• Musk's other business commitments (Tesla, SpaceX, X) could influence his tenure

• Congressional budget allocations and department performance metrics may affect job security

• Update 2025-02-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification:

  • The market will resolve to a "yes" only if Elon Musk is officially removed from or leaves his position as the head of DOGE.

  • If Elon Musk transitions to another role (for example, as an advisor) and remains involved in the federal government, the market will resolve to "no."