Resolution criteria:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Federal Reserve announces a reduction in the federal funds rate during any of its scheduled meetings in June 2025. If no such announcement is made, the market will resolve to "No." The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is scheduled to meet on June 18, 2025. The official statement released after this meeting will serve as the primary source for resolution.

Background:

As of May 4, 2025, the federal funds rate is maintained within the target range of 4.25% to 4.50%. The Federal Reserve has held this rate steady since January 2025, following a series of rate cuts in late 2024.

Recent economic indicators present a mixed picture. The U.S. economy contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025, raising concerns about a potential slowdown. Inflation remains elevated, with the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index rising faster than expected in March. Additionally, President Donald Trump's implementation of broad tariffs has introduced further uncertainty, potentially impacting both inflation and economic growth.

Market participants are closely monitoring these developments. While some traders anticipate a rate cut by June, Federal Reserve officials have signaled a cautious approach, indicating that rates will remain unchanged until clearer signs of inflation nearing the 2% target or evidence of labor market weakening emerge.

The upcoming FOMC meeting on June 18, 2025, will be pivotal in determining the Federal Reserve's response to these economic conditions.

Federal Reserve's Upcoming Decisions Amid Economic Uncertainty:

• Fed signals rates will remain unchanged despite market bets on looming cuts

• May Fed Meeting: Live Updates and Commentary

• Wall St Week Ahead: Fed outlook in focus as US stocks rally picks up steam