In 50 years, what will most cosmologists believe the age of the Universe is?
11
240Ṁ1093
2073
21%
13.787 ± 1 Gy
0.6%
Infinite (Big Bounce)
77%
Greater than 1 second
1.8%
Other

As of 2018, the Plank Collaboration estimates the approximate age of the Universe to be 13.787 ± 0.020 Gy.

[Planck 2018 results. VI. Cosmological parameters](https://arxiv.org/abs/1807.06209)

In 2015, the Plank Collaboration estimated it to be 13.799±0.021 Gy.

In 2013, they estimated it to be 13.798±0.037 Gy.

Wikipedia:

[Plank (spacecraft)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planck_(spacecraft))

[Age of the Universe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Age_of_the_universe)

Planck 2018 results. VI. Cosmological parameters
We present cosmological parameter results from the final full-mission Planck measurements of the CMB anisotropies. We find good consistency with the standard spatially-flat 6-parameter $Λ$CDM cosmology having a power-law spectrum of adiabatic scalar perturbations (denoted "base $Λ$CDM" in this paper), from polarization, temperature, and lensing, separately and in combination. A combined analysis gives dark matter density $Ω_c h^2 = 0.120\pm 0.001$, baryon density $Ω_b h^2 = 0.0224\pm 0.0001$, scalar spectral index $n_s = 0.965\pm 0.004$, and optical depth $τ= 0.054\pm 0.007$ (in this abstract we quote $68\,\%$ confidence regions on measured parameters and $95\,\%$ on upper limits). The angular acoustic scale is measured to $0.03\,\%$ precision, with $100θ_*=1.0411\pm 0.0003$. These results are only weakly dependent on the cosmological model and remain stable, with somewhat increased errors, in many commonly considered extensions. Assuming the base-$Λ$CDM cosmology, the inferred late-Universe parameters are: Hubble constant $H_0 = (67.4\pm 0.5)$km/s/Mpc; matter density parameter $Ω_m = 0.315\pm 0.007$; and matter fluctuation amplitude $σ_8 = 0.811\pm 0.006$. We find no compelling evidence for extensions to the base-$Λ$CDM model. Combining with BAO we constrain the effective extra relativistic degrees of freedom to be $N_{\rm eff} = 2.99\pm 0.17$, and the neutrino mass is tightly constrained to $\sum m_ν< 0.12$eV. The CMB spectra continue to prefer higher lensing amplitudes than predicted in base -$Λ$CDM at over $2\,σ$, which pulls some parameters that affect the lensing amplitude away from the base-$Λ$CDM model; however, this is not supported by the lensing reconstruction or (in models that also change the background geometry) BAO data. (Abridged)
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@ThothHermes this is a badly formed market. The probabilities should not be dependent. They are not at all mutually exclusive. You should resolve this as N/A and rephrase.

@ThothHermes Clearly "greater than 1 second" is compatible with "13.787 ± 1 Gy". Besides the reasonable option to resolve it as N/A, is it possible to change the question type from "multiple choice" to "set" to keep the previous trades?

Given the presence of the answer "Greater than 1 second", the only way for this to resolve "Other" is for the age of the universe to be less than 1 second, i.e. for the Big Bang to occur after Aug 21, 2073, 5:58:59 AM?

also, "Infinite (Big Bounce)" means you're using a non-standard definition of "age" -- usually anything that may have happened before the Big Bang doesn't count. (If an embryo gets frozen for ten years and then implanted and the baby is born on 1 January 2034, how old would you say the kid is in 2035?)

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