In 50 years, what will most cosmologists believe the age of the Universe is?
11
265Ṁ1103
2073
68%
13.787 ± 1 Gy
13%
Infinite (Big Bounce)
4%
resolves no
8%
Between 12.5 and 13 billion years
8%
Other

Resolves to the answer that is closest to what cosmologists believe the age of the universe is in 2073.

As of 2018, the Plank Collaboration estimates the approximate age of the Universe to be 13.787 ± 0.020 Gy.

[Planck 2018 results. VI. Cosmological parameters](https://arxiv.org/abs/1807.06209)

In 2015, the Plank Collaboration estimated it to be 13.799±0.021 Gy.

In 2013, they estimated it to be 13.798±0.037 Gy.

Wikipedia:

[Plank (spacecraft)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planck_(spacecraft))

[Age of the Universe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Age_of_the_universe)

Planck 2018 results. VI. Cosmological parameters
We present cosmological parameter results from the final full-mission Planck measurements of the CMB anisotropies. We find good consistency with the standard spatially-flat 6-parameter $Λ$CDM cosmology having a power-law spectrum of adiabatic scalar perturbations (denoted "base $Λ$CDM" in this paper), from polarization, temperature, and lensing, separately and in combination. A combined analysis gives dark matter density $Ω_c h^2 = 0.120\pm 0.001$, baryon density $Ω_b h^2 = 0.0224\pm 0.0001$, scalar spectral index $n_s = 0.965\pm 0.004$, and optical depth $τ= 0.054\pm 0.007$ (in this abstract we quote $68\,\%$ confidence regions on measured parameters and $95\,\%$ on upper limits). The angular acoustic scale is measured to $0.03\,\%$ precision, with $100θ_*=1.0411\pm 0.0003$. These results are only weakly dependent on the cosmological model and remain stable, with somewhat increased errors, in many commonly considered extensions. Assuming the base-$Λ$CDM cosmology, the inferred late-Universe parameters are: Hubble constant $H_0 = (67.4\pm 0.5)$km/s/Mpc; matter density parameter $Ω_m = 0.315\pm 0.007$; and matter fluctuation amplitude $σ_8 = 0.811\pm 0.006$. We find no compelling evidence for extensions to the base-$Λ$CDM model. Combining with BAO we constrain the effective extra relativistic degrees of freedom to be $N_{\rm eff} = 2.99\pm 0.17$, and the neutrino mass is tightly constrained to $\sum m_ν< 0.12$eV. The CMB spectra continue to prefer higher lensing amplitudes than predicted in base -$Λ$CDM at over $2\,σ$, which pulls some parameters that affect the lensing amplitude away from the base-$Λ$CDM model; however, this is not supported by the lensing reconstruction or (in models that also change the background geometry) BAO data. (Abridged)
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@ThothHermes this is a badly formed market. The probabilities should not be dependent. They are not at all mutually exclusive. You should resolve this as N/A and rephrase.

@ThothHermes Clearly "greater than 1 second" is compatible with "13.787 ± 1 Gy". Besides the reasonable option to resolve it as N/A, is it possible to change the question type from "multiple choice" to "set" to keep the previous trades?

@vdb @mods yes, is it possible to change the market structure in mid-flight so to speak? In theory? Not sure if it is a good idea, though, anyway. Needs experience, methinks to sort out.

@JussiVilleHeiskanen I can change the 1 second answer to resolves no and we can say resolves to the answer closest to that they say the age is in 50 years

@ian yes, lacking experience, that possibility didn't even occur to me. I'll have keep that in mind.

Given the presence of the answer "Greater than 1 second", the only way for this to resolve "Other" is for the age of the universe to be less than 1 second, i.e. for the Big Bang to occur after Aug 21, 2073, 5:58:59 AM?

also, "Infinite (Big Bounce)" means you're using a non-standard definition of "age" -- usually anything that may have happened before the Big Bang doesn't count. (If an embryo gets frozen for ten years and then implanted and the baby is born on 1 January 2034, how old would you say the kid is in 2035?)

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