I'm curious how people will view President Trump once he's been in office for about a year. What do you think his approval rating will be at the end of 2025?

For resolution, I will use the 538 approval rating. They currently have one for President Biden and I assume they will have one for Trump too. I'm referring to this one: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/

538 already has a similar index, which I assume they will turn into his presidential approval rating once he assumes office: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/

If such an index should be unavailable, I will pick one that approximates it closely and tell you about it in the comments.

You can see his approval ratings in the first term here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_the_first_Donald_Trump_administration

The options provide more granularity in the 30%-50% range because that's where his approval rating has been in the first term.

The market resolves early if Trump is not in office at the end of 2025 (due to getting shot, resigning, dying from heart disease, never becoming President in the first place, ....). If somebody else also named Trump becomes his successor, the market still resolves as out of office.

I'm open to questions and suggestions.

• Update 2025-04-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Update:

  • The primary resolution index remains the 538 approval rating.

  • If 538 is offline, the fallback index will be the Economist approval rating.

  • This clarification specifies the exact fallback measure for resolving the market.