Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2027, there is publicly available evidence indicating that the cost of generating connectomics data has fallen below $1 million per cubic millimeter. Acceptable evidence includes:

• Published cost analyses in peer-reviewed scientific journals.

• Official pricing from commercial connectomics service providers.

If no such evidence is available by the resolution date, the market will resolve to "No."

Background

Connectomics involves mapping the neural connections within the brain, a process traditionally reliant on electron microscopy (EM). The high costs associated with EM—stemming from expensive equipment, labor-intensive processes, and substantial data storage requirements—have made large-scale projects like whole-brain mapping prohibitively expensive. For instance, imaging a single cubic millimeter of brain tissue using EM can take several months and cost millions of dollars. (cell.com)

Emerging technologies aim to reduce these costs significantly. The PRISM platform, developed by E11 Bio, integrates protein barcoding, expansion microscopy, and AI-driven image analysis to streamline the connectomics process. This approach promises up to a 100-fold reduction in costs, potentially bringing the expense of mapping a whole mouse brain down to approximately $10 million. (e11.bio)

Additionally, optical microscopy techniques combined with genetic cell barcoding are being explored as cost-effective alternatives to EM. These methods could further decrease the financial and time investments required for comprehensive connectomic studies. (neuroaisafety.com)

Considerations

• Technological Development: The feasibility of achieving sub-$1 million per cubic millimeter costs hinges on the successful development and widespread adoption of these emerging technologies.

• Data Verification: Ensuring the accuracy and reliability of data produced by new methods is crucial for their acceptance in the scientific community.

• Market Availability: The presence of commercial services offering connectomics data generation at the specified cost will be a key factor in resolving this market.