Resolution criteria:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, between May 6, 2025, and May 6, 2026, a public coup attempt occurs against a government in any South American country. A "public coup attempt" is defined as an overt and deliberate action by military personnel, government officials, or organized groups aiming to overthrow an existing government through unconstitutional means. The attempt must be widely reported by credible news sources. If no such event occurs within the specified timeframe, the market will resolve to "No."

• Update 2025-05-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified the definition of South American country for this market. It will be based on the Wikipedia definition of the continent, specifically referring to the following twelve sovereign states:

  • Argentina

  • Bolivia

  • Brazil

  • Chile

  • Colombia

  • Ecuador

  • Guyana

  • Paraguay

  • Peru

  • Suriname

  • Uruguay

  • Venezuela

This excludes territories that are not governed from the continent and also island nations on the continental shelf.

• Update 2026-01-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that a coup attempt must come from internal forces within the country to qualify for resolution. While this was not explicitly stated in the original description, this was the creator's intended interpretation of what constitutes a "coup attempt."

• Update 2026-01-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has provided a reference to the Powell-Thyne definition of coups as an example of a more rigorous definition that may inform resolution. This appears to be in response to questions about whether external forces (such as the Venezuela situation) would qualify as a coup attempt under this market's criteria.