Resolution criteria

• Resolve YES if by 23:59 UTC on October 10, 2025, an official NATO outlet (nato.int, shape.nato.int, or ac.nato.int) publishes an announcement that NATO is deploying new ground-based air/missile defense units (e.g., Patriot, NASAMS, SAMP/T, IRIS‑T SLM) to locations on Poland’s eastern border (voivodeships bordering Belarus or Ukraine: Podlaskie, Lubelskie, Podkarpackie).

• The NATO publication must explicitly indicate the deployment is to eastern Poland (or name specific sites there, e.g., Zamość, Lublin, Rzeszów, Biała Podlaska). Member‑state announcements alone do not count unless NATO later publishes/endorses them on the above sites.

• Extensions/maintenance of existing deployments without movement of units, fighter-aircraft air policing, and the static Aegis Ashore site do not count. Only ground-based air defense units positioned ashore qualify.

• If no qualifying NATO announcement is published by the deadline, resolve NO.

Background

• NATO’s Aegis Ashore ballistic missile defense site at Redzikowo (north Poland) became mission-ready in July 2024; this static system does not meet the deployment criterion above. (ac.nato.int)

• Germany has previously deployed a Patriot task force to Zamość, Poland, under NATO’s eastern-flank posture, and discussed further redeployments—illustrating precedent for GBAD presence in eastern Poland. (ac.nato.int, reuters.com)

• On September 10, 2025, after repeated Russian drone incursions into Polish airspace, Poland sought NATO Article 4 consultations; additional Allied air defenses have been discussed/deployed bilaterally (e.g., Dutch Patriots planned from December). These moves may prompt NATO‑level announcements. (reuters.com)

Considerations

• Many air-defense moves are national/bilateral; this market requires a NATO‑published announcement to count. (nato.int, shape.nato.int)

• NATO sometimes avoids precise site naming; the announcement must specify “eastern Poland” or name locations in border voivodeships to qualify. (nato.int)

• Air policing jets and exercises do not qualify unless NATO explicitly announces deployment of ground-based air/missile defense units to eastern Poland. (ac.nato.int)