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How do you resolve?

@a2bb to the percentage after closing. 49% or lower is NO, 50% or higher is yes.

@TheWabiSabi The incentives for the market then mean you will likely get the probabiliy to flip right before market closure, do be aware of that. It's essentially a whalebait market.

People have a negative Salience bias - you should be ok in the Netherlands. Some of the other reasons offered here aren't even related to the risk of war

@TheWabiSabi Where in the world are you located? I think that informs your this question more than other users could.

Regardless, though, I think it’s prudent to put together some basic supplies for potential natural disaster. I don’t think you have to buy a kit for that though — I’d suggest items like shelf-stable/canned food, some extra water or the means to treat water, a flashlight or headlamp, and perhaps some extra medications and/or extra pet food.

Basically, if you lost power/electricity/water/heat for days or weeks, what would you need to survive or even remain reasonably comfortable?

My own such kit also includes a crescent wrench to manually turn off the gas line to my home (in case of serious earthquake > gas leak).

I’m also an avid wilderness backpacker and consider certain pieces of gear like my pack, stove, sleeping bag, and external batteries to be potential important emergency items.

Finally, tailor your kit to your area: e.g. if wildfires are a risk, set aside some N95 masks in case of bad air. If you’re in a potential flood zone, maybe an inflatable raft or something would make sense, idk.

And then just stuff it all in a duffel bag or backpack in the back of your closet or garage or basement or whatever, just in case. (And don’t forget to occasionally rotate out the water and canned foods! 😉)

@snazzlePop good question: located near the coast in The Netherlands

@snazzlePop so a raft or something wouldn't be a bad idd as I'm living below the sea level.

@TheWabiSabi

I don’t think you’re at much risk for war or invasion, but I do think it’s worthwhile imagining what you’d need to survive a few days to a week or two without essential utilities or external aid for food/water.

You should buy a prep kit regardless of the potential of war.

@komplexkonjugat do you have one and what are the 3 most important to things in it?

First thing would be water. Buy some large (20 liter/5 gallon) cannisters, fill them up and put them away. Don't forget to empty them, clean and refill them about once per year. I have eight of them, six in the basement and two in the appartment. Once per quarter I carry two of them up, clean and refill them.

Next thing would be food. For all non-perishable food stuffs (or at least stuff with long shelf life) I try to keep twice the amount I need at home. So, if I back in the day used to buy 1 kg of pasta I rather buy 2x1 kg of pasta, and then I restock whenever I'm back down to 1 kg pasta (rather than when I'm down to 0 kg of pasta).

Then there's heating. Both to cook food and keep yourself warms. I have a portable gas fired stove and gas for it. And you can't have enough cheap, refillable lighters as well. Blankets are good as well.

And continuing past 3:

First aid kit of course.

Radio

Flashlights

@komplexkonjugat Not really any huge costs, mainly takes up space.

@komplexkonjugat then you'd resolve this as no - because the jit wouldn't be "because of potential war"