This market will resolve based on national polling data from either Gallup or Pew Research showing whether more than 70% of respondents believe Donald Trump is too old to serve as president.
Resolution Criteria:
Market resolves YES if any national poll from Gallup or Pew Research shows >70% of respondents believe Trump is too old to be president by the end of 2025. Also resolves yes if he dies before end of market.
Otherwise resolves NO.
References:
1,000People are also trading
Market was ~40% when I bet; I've got it ~5%. Neither Gallup nor Pew asks a "too old" question, and Pew's closest items show about 52% not confident in his mental fitness, far from 70%. Most of what's left is the death clause, maybe 1–2%. https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2026/01/29/confidence-in-trump-dips-and-fewer-now-say-they-support-his-policies-and-plans/
