Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if any of the following three officials officially vacates or ceases to hold their respective office on or before 11:59 PM ET on January 3, 2027 (90 days from October 5, 2026):

• Pete Hegseth (Secretary of Defense)

• Kash Patel (Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation)

• Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services)

This market resolves to NO if all three individuals remain in their respective offices as of the end of this 90-day window.

Additional Details:

• Definition of "Out": Ceasing to hold the office includes resignation, firing, formal removal (including impeachment and conviction), death, or any other official mechanism by which the individual no longer carries the title and duties of the office.

• Timeline: An announcement of intent to resign or be fired does not trigger a YES resolution; the official departure from office must actually occur within the 90-day window.

• Sources: Outcomes will be verified using official government announcements (e.g., defense.gov, fbi.gov, hhs.gov) and reporting from major media outlets (e.g., AP News, Reuters).

Background

All three officials have occupied high-profile, highly scrutinized roles within the Trump administration, drawing persistent public and congressional pushback.

• Pete Hegseth has faced intense scrutiny regarding Pentagon budget requests, general officer reductions, and operational controversies.

• Kash Patel has been the focus of congressional hearings regarding transparency and FBI redirection of resources.

• Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has faced mounting criticism and calls for resignation from HHS staff and congressional opponents over public health messaging and administration-level responses.

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