The projected black friday sales for 2024 in the United States is $10.8 billion (https://news.adobe.com/news/2024/09/092524-adi-holiday-forecast). If the actual amount, as reported by adobe, is larger than $10.8 billion by at least $.1 billion, then the market resolves to Yes. Otherwise, it resolves to No. The market resolves when the data comes out.
1,000
3.00@traders E-commerce Black Friday Sales were $10.8 billion, as projected by Adobe: https://business.adobe.com/resources/holiday-shopping-report.html and https://www.npr.org/2024/12/01/g-s1-36310/black-friday-cyber-monday-record-spending#:~:text=Trump's%20Terms-,Black%20Friday%202024%3A%20Shoppers%20spent%20a%20record%20%2410.8B%20online,to%20smash%20another%20spending%20record. Adobe made a correct projection for the second year in a row, which is why I was suspicious of this data at first, but this seems to be correct.
@traders This will resolve soon. It seems that it will resolve No: https://business.adobe.com/resources/holiday-shopping-report.html. However, the data is confusing as to whether it is projected data or observed data. I will wait a bit longer to see if it is updated. The news is reporting 10.8 billion in sales, so they seem to believe that this is reporting observed data.