Outcome verified from https://www.politico.eu/country/norway/

Resolution criteria

• Resolves to the first person formally appointed as Prime Minister of Norway (statsminister) after this market is created. Confirmation must appear in an official “Offisielt fra statsråd” notice and on the Government’s “Current government” page on regjeringen.no. Example reference pages: Change of Government process, and the 14 Oct 2021 appointment notice. (regjeringen.no)

• If the incumbent is reappointed (e.g., after the 2025 election), that option wins. Acting/temporary prime ministers (settestatsminister) do not count unless later formally appointed in Council of State. (regjeringen.no)

Background

• Norway’s parliamentary election is on Monday, 8 September 2025 (many municipalities also open Sunday, 7 September). Coalition talks typically follow, with the King appointing the government in Council of State; the outgoing cabinet serves in a caretaker role until the handover. (valgdirektoratet.no, regjeringen.no)

• Incumbent: Jonas Gahr Støre (Labour), PM since 14 Oct 2021; since 4 Feb 2025 he leads a Labour-only minority after the Centre Party exited government. (en.wikipedia.org, regjeringen.no)

• Erna Solberg is leader of the Conservative Party (Høyre), re‑elected by the party on 22 Mar 2025. (nrk.no)

• Sylvi Listhaug is leader of the Progress Party (FrP). (frp.no)

Considerations

• In Norway’s system, the PM is whoever can assemble parliamentary support, not necessarily the leader of the largest party. Appointment and cabinet formation often occur weeks after election day; the resolution will wait for the formal Council of State appointment. (regjeringen.no)