Who am I thinking of? [Round 15; WILDCARD ruleset- read desc]
3
150Ṁ1415
Dec 1
98.8%
Other

I'm thinking of a specific real person or fictional character. Let's see if you can guess who it is!

CURRENT PRIZE VALUE: Ṁ500

Rules (WILDCARD- Suspicion):

  1. At market closing time (and not before), if someone has added the person I'm thinking of to the market, it will resolve to the person. If the person I'm thinking of has not been added to the market, the closing time will be extended for another week.

  2. Each user can ask one yes/no question in the comments every 8 hours, and I will try to answer in a timely manner. The answers I give will be limited to "yes," "no," and "unknown."

  3. If your question does not follow the parameters I've set, or if it has too much gray area/a simple "yes" or "no" would be misleading, I will reply with "rephrase" and a brief snippet on what needs to be clarified. You do not need to wait 8 hours to rephrase your question.

  4. Upon receipt of the question (and clarification, if needed), I will roll a d4. If it lands on 1, I will lie; otherwise, I will tell the truth. Therefore, expect that approximately 25% of my answers will be false.

  5. I may refuse to answer meta questions ("has the person already been added to this market," "does the person’s name have X number of letters," etc.) at my discretion.

  6. If you have a guess for who I'm thinking of, add your answer to the market. (I will not answer point-blank questions along the lines of "is it this specific person.") You may add as many answers as you like; initial liquidity is low to facilitate addition of answers.

  7. The user who adds the correct answer will receive a prize upon resolution of the market. The prize starts at Ṁ500 and decreases by Ṁ100 each time the market closing time is extended, with a minimum prize value of Ṁ100.

I will not bet in this market.

Check out the WAITO dashboard for other ongoing and past iterations of this kind of market, including a list of the answers to my previous rounds.

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Was this person's first appearance in media (or birth date if real) before the year 2008?

(It's awkward that fictional characters also have birth dates but I'm not interested in them!)

Was this person's first appearance in media (or birth date if real) before the year 2000?

@TheSchwa Now I have to think through Bayes’ theorem again…

@moobunny So schematically my prior update is going to look something like this...

Has this person appeared in an emmy nominated TV show?

Has this person appeared in a video game

Is this person female (clarification)

bought Ṁ1,118 YES

Is it a real person, who is alive, with their own wikipedia page?

@Jack0 No.

If I asked, "Does this person identify as male?" would you answer "yes"?

@Quroe How does that interact with the randomness? Do they roll one die to see if they answer yes, and another die to see if they answer truthfully about whether they’d answer yes?

@robert Good lord that market is a Gordian Knot.

@Quroe Rephrase [rule 5; let's not get into logic puzzles]

bought Ṁ221 NO

@TheSchwa Does this person identify as male?

@Quroe Yes.

are they female?

Is the answer a real person?

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