Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, on or before December 31, 2040, a "significant antipope" is declared or established. Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.

To resolve to YES, a papal claimant must meet at least one of the following objective criteria of significance:

1. Hierarchy Backing: The claimant is formally elected, recognized, or supported as Pope by at least one active Cardinal or at least five active Bishops of the mainstream Roman Catholic Church (who were validly ordained within the Church).

2. State Recognition: The claimant is formally recognized as the legitimate Pope or Sovereign of the Vatican (or a rival entity claiming to be the true Roman Catholic Church) by the government of at least one sovereign state that is a member of the United Nations.

3. Major Mainstream News Recognition: The claimant is the central figure of a major schism and is widely described as an "antipope" or "rival Pope" in prominent international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, The Associated Press, BBC, The New York Times, or The Economist) in the context of a substantial, non-fringe institutional split in the Catholic Church.

Exclusions:

• Existing modern-day alternative popes (such as those of the Palmarian Catholic Church, Legio Maria, or independent conclavist claimants like "Pope Michael II") do not trigger a YES resolution unless they subsequently meet one of the significance criteria above after the creation of this market.

• Self-proclaimed "popes" of minor fringe sects (typically having fewer than 10,000 active adherents and no backing from the mainstream Catholic hierarchy) do not qualify.

Background

Historically, an antipope is a person who opposes a canonically elected Pope, making a rival claim to the Bishopric of Rome and the supreme leadership of the Roman Catholic Church. While the era of major antipopes—often backed by rival factions of cardinals and European monarchs—largely ended in the 15th century, the modern era has seen several "conclavist" and "sedevacantist" alternative claimants.

These modern claimants (such as the Palmarian "popes" in Spain) are generally considered fringe and lack the geopolitical or ecumenical significance of historical antipopes. However, ongoing theological polarization and debates over potential future schisms have led some commentators to speculate about the modern potential for a formal, high-profile split within the Church hierarchy.