On a recent (April 2024) episode of Bloomberg ODD LOTS podcast, guest Josh Wolfe tells us that just as ChatGPT opened everyone's eyes to the power of chatbots, a similar moment is coming in the robotics space.
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https://youtu.be/qi8F3elM-3U?si=vG4sStOGD8qd7IoS
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Preferred method for resolution will be based on judgement by any of the participants in this discussion (Josh Wolfe, Tracy Alloway or Joe Weisenthal)
This market resolves to "YES" if any of the three publicly assert that we have crossed the equivalent of a "ChatGPT moment" threshold for Robotics.
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Otherwise...
I'll resolve based on whether there have been advances that capture these main elements of what Josh is predicting:
advances that are sufficient to capture the general public's attention, similar to what occurred with the rollout of ChatGPT and other advanced chatbots
robot systems that use a consumer-friendly and intuitive natural language interface (Instead of complex programming, you'd say things like, "Robot, please pick up the red box and place it on the shelf.”)
robot systems that generalize to a wide range of tasks that can be performed in a wide range of environments