Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if Mary Peltola publicly announces the suspension, termination, or withdrawal of her candidacy from the 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate election, or files an official notice of withdrawal with the Alaska Division of Elections, on or before the close of polls on Election Day, November 3, 2026.

This market resolves to NO if Mary Peltola does not withdraw her candidacy by the specified deadline and remains an active candidate through Election Day.

Notes and Edge Cases:

• Involuntary removal from the ballot or legal disqualification by a court or election authority without a formal concession or withdrawal by Peltola or her campaign will resolve to NO, unless Peltola concurrently announces that she is voluntarily stepping down from the race.

• Credible public statements from Peltola, her official campaign, or verified reporting by major news outlets (such as the Associated Press) will serve as sufficient confirmation of withdrawal.

Background

In late October 2026, The New York Times published an investigation reporting that aides and operatives associated with Democratic nominee Mary Peltola's campaign had recruited a retired Petersburg teacher named Dan J. Sullivan to run in Alaska’s top-four ranked-choice general election alongside incumbent Republican Senator Dan S. Sullivan.

Following the report, President Donald Trump and other Republican officials called for Peltola to withdraw from the Senate race, be removed from the ballot, and face criminal prosecution. The Peltola campaign denied direct involvement with other candidates, while federal legal challenges surrounding candidate recruitment and ballot certification remained pending.

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