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MANIFOLD
Will I be productive each day? (personal credence = ~20%, track record = 4.5/15, please bet against me to motivate me)
12
แน€1.3kแน€893
resolved May 11
Resolved
NO
Thu 18 Apr 2024
Resolved
NO
Fri 19 Apr 2024
Resolved
NO
Sat 20 Apr 2024
Resolved
NO
Sun 21 Apr 2024
Resolved
NO
Mon 22 Apr 2024
Resolved
NO
Tue 23 Apr 2024
Resolved
NO
Wed 24 Apr 2024
Resolved
YES
Thu 25 Apr 2024
Resolved
YES
Fri 26 Apr 2024
Resolved
NO
Sat 27 Apr 2024
Resolved
YES
Sun 28 Apr 2024
Resolved
YES
Mon 29 Apr 2024
Resolved
NO
Tue 30 Apr 2024
Resolved
50%
Wed 1 May 2024
Resolved
NO
Thu 2 May 2024
Resolved
NO
Fri 3 May 2024

Each day resolves YES if afterwards I subjectively have >50% credence that I was productively working on the tasks I logically know I should have been for >50% of waking hours, resolves NO if not, resolves 50% if unsure/borderline.

I will continue adding days if I feel it is still helping me.

Some past markets for context / track record:

Market context
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@traders 8 more days added, current track record 1/8 days productive, will retroactively resolve the days that have already passed a couple days from now, remember I'm betting yes on everything regardless of outcome

bought แน€10 YES

@traders 4 more days added, current track record 0/4 days productive

@TheAllMemeingEye ๐Ÿซ‚

Please help me, my life is about to fall apart if I don't get my focus issues under control :(

@TheAllMemeingEye
Try to get everything you can locally, so you can still work on your PC, and then turn off your box.
You can only turn on your box at a couple of particular hours, while the box is turned off, make a list of everything you will have to find while your internet connection is on.
At the start of each day, make a list of everything you will one to do for this day.

@dionisos It will not work instantaneously, but I bet you will get a +5 on your concentration stat as soon as your second day doing it.
Don't bother too much about it making you less productive because you can't check out now something that would help you, it will be worth it, you will quickly get better at getting everything you need while connected, and you will be focused while you go through your list.

@dionisos Thanks for the suggestion :)

@TheAllMemeingEye Tell it if you try it one day :-)
(And if it worked if you try)