I will not bet in this market to avoid incentives for dishonest resolution

I will attempt to give updates in the comments on life developments that significantly affect the odds for any option, within the limits of not doxxing myself or others

Relevant context and clarifications for each outcome:

• Death:

  • I am a mid-twenties male living in the UK

  • I have no known terminal illnesses

  • I am not significantly overweight, and eat a balanced mostly vegan diet

  • I don't usually exercise but do regularly walk to work

  • I don't smoke and only drink alcohol occasionally

  • I don't have a dangerous profession

  • If indefinite life extension becomes widely available, affordable, and safe during my lifetime, and the world doesn’t appear to be heading into a hellish dystopia, I would be fairly likely to try to get it

  • I’m counting my physical body here, I currently view brain upload emulations as more like copying myself than them literally being me

• Lightning:

  • The UK base rate is ~1/1M per person yearly (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lightning_strike)

  • I don't tend to go outside during thunderstorms

• Cards:

  • So far I've only found myself in a situation where I've needed to shuffle a deck of cards maybe once every few years, though it's possible I could take on a hobby involving card games in the future

  • Exact ascending order here means groups in order [clubs, diamonds, hearts, spades] and within each group in order [1, … , 10, J, Q, K, A]

  • There are 52 cards per deck so 52! = ~8×10^67 possible orders

• Billionaire:

  • There are currently ~2000 billionaires globally

  • I do not know any billionaires personally, and am not currently expecting to inherit a vast fortune or business

  • My career path is currently aimed at scientific research, though it involves numerical and computational skills that might be transferable to finance

  • It needs to be in USD, GBP, or EUR

  • I'm counting net worth, not just liquid money in accounts

• Head of state / government:

  • There are currently ~200 heads of state / government globally

  • I do not know any heads of state / government personally, though I did once meet and shake hands with a major head of state at a ceremonial event I happened to be present at by sheer coincidence several years ago

  • As mentioned, my career path is currently aimed at scientific research, though I have a strong layman amateur interest in politics, and some recent world leaders have suddenly become in charge despite background outside politics e.g. Reagan was an actor, Trump was a nepo baby businessman, Harris was a district attorney, Walz was a soldier and sports coach, Zelensky was a comedian, Putin was a KGB agent, Thatcher was a chemist, Starmer was a human rights lawyer etc.

  • I have extremely unusual philosophical / political beliefs which may alienate voters and politicians alike

• Prize:

  • Example hyper-prestigious international prizes include but aren't limited to

    • Nobel prize (physics, chemistry, medicine, literature, economics, peace)

    • Turing award (computer science)

    • Fields medal (mathematics)

    • Pulitzer prize (journalism, literature, music)

    • Oscar, Emmy, Tony, Golden Globe, BAFTA (TV and cinema)

    • Olympic medals (various sports)

    • Hugo award, Nebula award (science-fiction and fantasy writing)

    • Grammy (music)

  • Sharing the award still counts

  • I have a high grade physics degree from a prestigious university and am working in scientific research

  • I am early in my career, and have thus not yet had my research published in journals, but have presented my research at a national science conference

  • I intend to aim my career at producing research that helps others as much as possible

• Followers / subscribers:

  • I have accounts on Instagram, YouTube, and LinkedIn, that I have never used to post content

  • I have an account on Facebook which I used to occasionally post travel photos several years ago

  • I have an account on Reddit, and used to on Google+, which I used to frequently post original memes several years ago

  • My Manifold account is currently the only one I actively use to post content

  • I currently only have a few dozen followers total across all my accounts

  • I have the hope that within a few years I might have enough consistent free time to start creating and posting various recreational project ideas that have been building up, both on my existing anonymous accounts (YouTube, Reddit) and on potential new ones (Xitter, Threads, TikTok, DeviantArt, ArtStation, Effective Altruism Forum, LessWrong, a personal website etc.)

• Moon:

  • Only 12 people have walked on the moon so far, during the Apollo program, but the ongoing Artemis program plans to resume moon landings in the late 2020s

  • It's possible that the Artemis program could eventually lead to the establishment of permanent moon bases

  • I would not even attempt to join a space mission while the likelihood of death per launch remains >1% unless I had nothing to lose e.g. terminal illness, impending earth destruction etc.

  • With impending vast technological growth, there is a significant possibility that one day space travel may be safe enough, and as a scientific researcher, a very small but technically non-zero possibility that I may qualify for and join one of the later routine research missions on the moon bases

• Beliefs:

  • A broad summary of my current philosophical and political beliefs would be:

    • Normative ethics i.e. fundamentally what is good?: moral realism, consequentialism, pluralist balance between negative-leaning utilitarianism and egoism

    • Applied ethics i.e. in practice what should we do as individuals to achieve goodness?: effective altruism

    • Epistemics i.e. fundamentally what is true?: empiricism, rationalism, scientific method

    • Politics i.e. in practice what system should society use to achieve goodness?

      • Economic politics i.e. system of production and distribution of resources and services: at least Nordic-style welfarism, possibly outright anarcho-communism (worker-owned democratically-controlled industry, decentralised planned economy with UBI)

      • Governmental politics i.e. system of leadership and law enforcement: proportional representation democracy for parliament, iterated universal nomination election for technocratic council of advisors, anti-authoritarianism

      • Cultural politics i.e. system of attitude towards societal changes like moral circle expansion, globalisation, and technology: hyper-progressivism, universal compassion (feminism, anti-racism, LGBT+ rights, animal rights, AI rights, alien rights), hyper-internationalism (world government, open borders), techno-cautious

  • My current views are vastly different from how they were when I was a child or teenager, but mostly similar to how they were upon reaching adulthood

• Virginity:

  • Ain't never gonna happen in a gazillion years lol, basically a guaranteed no resolution

  • I think I look ok but I also gather that in general people perceive me as a loner weirdo

  • I am a straight cisgender male

  • My friendship group consists of perhaps a half dozen distant friends, 2 close friends, and 2 close family members, is of roughly equal gender balance, and has low-to-moderate relationship success rate

  • I tried online dating for the first time for a few months last year, which led to 7 matches, 3 first dates, and eventually 1 relationship, which due to unfortunate life circumstances outside our control had to end almost immediately after becoming official, and the breakup harmed my morale at work enough that I haven't attempted dating again since then

  • I have significant neurodivergence, most notably autism, OCD, and ADD

  • I am perhaps irrationally paranoid that attempting to pursue one night stands / hook-ups with strangers would lead to me being slandered, extorted, abused, abducted, or even murdered

  • I would define losing virginity as any consensual intentional sexual stimulation, giving or receiving