The Pythagorean cup, attributed to the ancient Greek mathematician Pythagoras, is designed to empty its contents if filled beyond a certain point. The cup has a central column with a hidden siphon mechanism. When the liquid level rises above the designated point, the siphon effect kicks in, causing the entire contents of the cup to drain out through the bottom.
This market resolves to the odds at close, plus 34%, looping back around to 0% after 100%. A more concise formula:
R(O_c) = (O_c + 34%) mod 101%
Initially one is incentivised to bet it up, but if too many people do so, it becomes easier and thus more likely that someone will tip it over the spillover point (66%) at the last second (e.g. trolls trying to make everyone mad, or users making deals with each other to profit from simultaneously betting it down), and vice versa if people overcompensate.
34% was chosen so that it won't be profitable for a whale to swoop in and bet it from just below the spillover point down to 1%, as it would with smaller resolution offsets.
1,000๐ Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | แน43 | |
| 2 | แน20 | |
| 3 | แน16 | |
| 4 | แน15 | |
| 5 | แน11 |
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As @ZaneMiller says, it's always resolving to a percentage, rather than outright yes or no.
As you rightfully point out, after closer analysis, there is a slight contradiction between the title and description. Since most traders will have only seen the title, I'm inclined to change the description to match the title rather than vice versa i.e. R(O_c) = (O_c + 34%) mod 101%
To clarify for some specific points:
R(1%) = (1% + 34%) mod 101% = 35%
R(16%) = (16% + 34%) mod 101% = 50%
R(65%) = (65% + 34%) mod 101% = 99%
R(66%) = (66% + 34%) mod 101% = 100%
R(67%) = (67% + 34%) mod 101% = 0%
R(68%) = (68% + 34%) mod 101% = 1%
R(99%) = (99% + 34%) mod 101% = 32%
@JussiVilleHeiskanen Idk why anyone would want to fill them, but I've made some.
@TheAllMemeingEye Assuming everyone plays well, isn't it just more or less a resolves yes below 66% and no above 66% situation?
@Quroe That's true, but it will either be a little over 66% --> almost 0% or a little under 66% --> almost 100% at market close, assuming I didn't miss something and everyone plays well.
@GastonKessler There isn't really any incentive betting it more than a few percentage points away from 66% (I have set limit orders, feel free to correct me if I'm wrong).
@GastonKessler arguably it could be worth it to bet it to near 100% if you're very confident that it will be bet back down before market close, and vice versa
@GastonKessler because it will resolve at a low percentage if the odds are too high, right? There is an incentive for others to bet it down
@TheAllMemeingEye sure but then the other part of the deal (the one who offered the NO limit order or the one who bet it back down the first bit would set up a yes limit order at 67% to empty his position.
@TheAllMemeingEye But I'd be happy to offer a couple thousand mana of no limit order at 75% if you've seen something I haven't
@GastonKessler fair enough, I don't have a 200 IQ rigorous strategy, I'm somewhat using this to experimentally see what trader behaviours emerge