Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if clashes between the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) and Ethiopian government forces occur during February 2026. Resolution will be based on credible reporting from international news sources (Reuters, AP, BBC, Al Jazeera, etc.) or official statements from the Ethiopian government or TPLF confirming armed clashes. The market resolves NO if no such clashes occur during the month.

Background

Clashes erupted on 29 January 2026 in the Tigray Region between the TPLF and Ethiopian government forces, marking the first major hostilities since the Pretoria Peace Agreement was signed on 2 November 2022, ending the Tigray War. Despite the agreement stipulating it, the TPLF/TDF did not demobilise, and still controlled much of the Tigray region. The Ethiopian federal government has begun a military buildup near Tigray region in the aftermath of recent clashes, indicating preparations for an expanded and prolonged war in northern Ethiopia.

Considerations

In March 2025, tensions intensified when a faction of the TPLF took over several offices in Mekelle in a coup, and these tensions continued in late 2025 when the TPLF accused the Ethiopian government of funding and aiding multiple anti-TPLF groups. Eritrea has formed an alliance of convenience with the TPLF since early 2025 despite their historic animosity, which could affect the scale and nature of any renewed conflict.

This description was generated by AI.