Resolution criteria

This market resolves based on the outcome of a hypothetical military conflict between the Ethiopian Defense Force (ENDF) and an alliance of the Eritrean Defense Forces (EDF) and Tigray Defense Force (TDF). Resolution will be determined by a poll voted on by market participants, as the outcome of a future conflict cannot be objectively verified through external sources. Traders should vote based on their assessment of which side would achieve military victory in such a scenario.

Background

Eritrea has formed an alliance of convenience with the TPLF since early 2025 despite their historic animosity. This represents a dramatic shift from the 2020-2022 Tigray War, when forces allied with the Ethiopian federal government and Eritrea fought against the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF).

The renewed Tigray conflict is taking place amid worsening Ethiopia-Eritrea diplomatic relations, with both countries accusing each other of backing domestic opposition groups, and Ethiopia's pursuit of Red Sea access exacerbating ongoing tensions. Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki promised to protect the TPLF in the event of a conflict with Ethiopia in early 2025.

Military capabilities differ significantly. Ethiopia has over $2 billion defense budget with 162,000 active personnel, 338 tanks, and 103 aircraft including 25 fighters. Eritrea numbers approximately 245,000 during peacetime with a reserve force of approximately 850,000. However, while the Eritrean Defence Forces remain large, cohesive, and battle-tested, they lack the modernization, flexibility, and force projection that define higher-ranked militaries, with international isolation, obsolete platforms, and indefinite conscription preventing modernization.

Considerations

Ethiopia's military is stretched thin, with the Ethiopian National Defense Force heavily deployed in Amhara to combat Fano ethno-nationalist militants. This deployment constraint could affect Ethiopia's ability to concentrate forces against a combined EDF-TDF alliance. Additionally, while some experts have expressed concerns of a direct conflict between the two countries, a direct confrontation between Ethiopia and Eritrea remains unlikely, with developments pointing instead to the potential for the two sides to support rival rebel groups.