Will 1=1 on January 1st 2023?

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158

Ṁ50k

resolved Jan 1

Resolved

YES

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This will resolve YES on January 1st 2023 with 100% probability. The price of a YES share on this question is hence the community's discount rate on M$ over the next year. Buying YES and selling it later is probably something like an interest-yielding bank account?

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#Interest Rates

#Free Money

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1,000

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3.00

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Looks like it's staying as 1 so far:

predicted YES

@Tetraspace In an alternate universe someone suddenly bought a bunch of No at the end--their username: StephenWolfram.

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6FmqiAgS8h4EJm86s/how-to-convince-me-that-2-2-3

@JonathanNankivell #MarketsForMoving if you can pull this on me 😄

99.5% = wat

Might as well get your yes out now.

I will have to, I'm just using it now because it doesn't lock up any of my money in the meantime. There's enough volume in this market for me to make it back now anyway 😁

@Tetraspace are you sure you don't have to pay the loan back when the market resolves?

I have a loan now so have some more risk-free return

I would like to formally apologize for writing the words "go brr"

loans go brr

@aps Then it would be nice to show this fractional M$ - it is really confusing right now (and it would explain weird mismatches between declared numbers and actual changes!)

@BoltonBailey you do get profit, it's just a fractional M$ and so rounded in the interface. But internally it's tracked.

Hmm, at 98% I get no profit even if I enter with my M$20 loan.

With $20 interest free loans, I expect this to converge up somewhat

Exiting for short-term trades and market creation.

needed to inves elsewere

Agree with Gurkenglas -- implied interest rate seems too low

Y'all are accepting too low interest rates.

Pulling out to put more into Ukraine

Interesting... basically you are subsidizing us (giving us risk free return) at your own cost in order to measure what rate people will accept.

Cool idea.

My interpretation of this currently is that since you can spend M$100 to get guaranteed M$104 in a year, the discount rate is 4% over that time period; if anyone had a faster discount rate, they would be better off selling their YES now and cashing out to lower the probability and increase payoffs, and if they had a lower discount rate, they would be better off buying more YES to get more M$.

The "Payout if yes" can't be seen until you make the trade (the Estimated max payout is often off by a fair amount); that makes this measure very uncertain.

These kind of bets I think are really important and interesting because it helps us research the capabilities of the system, and it provides good signals to the development team about what they may need to work on.

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