Looks ambiguous since it's a dependent market. From the discussion below, looks like N/A is the way to go because I didn't clarify how it should resolve in this case (I'd have done 50/50 ahead of time, but).

It's a shame the creator never clarified the resolution criteria but I just checked in on this market and was shocked to see Henry at 80%. I'll preface this by saying I haven't read everything about the situation in Haiti, but my basic research shows that Henry resigned and hadn't even been in the country for weeks. Even if his resignation "doesn't take effect" until a future unspecified date it's unclear if that actually means anything when the situation on the ground shows he exercises no power.

According to Wikipedia, Michel Patrick Boisvert became Acting Prime Minister on February 25th in Henry's absence, and he is actually on the ground and the one exercising the authority (or what is left of it) of Prime Minister, so I added him as an option.

Amid the February–March 2024 escalation of the gang war in Haiti, Boisvert has served as acting prime minister, overseeing the operations of Henry's government during the prime minister's absence from the country.

@mint As far as I can tell he promised to resign and then never actually did since the negotiations around the transitional council stalled. Wikipedia seems to think that he is still the prime minister (officially at least).

@mint @Arky @Tetra seems like both Ariel and Michel are simultaneously acting prime ministers on April 1. Is it possible to resolve both to yes? Idk if possible in this type of poll.

@Shifbru You could do a 50/50 split I guess.

@mint Looking into it more, I feel like a 50/50 split between Ariel Henry and Michel Boisvert makes the most sense. I thought that Boisvert wouldn't count since he was only temporarily given the power to act as prime minister while Ariel Henry was out of the country, but it looks like they are both officially the prime minister right now: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prime_ministers_of_Haiti

@Shifbru @Tetraspace

Got your Tetras crossed

@Arky yeah, in principle I feel a 50/50 could make sense, but only if this resolution criteria was made well-in advance of market closing. However, it's a bit unfair now that bets have already been placed - I'll be honest, and I'm part pushing this issue since I've placed bets on both assuming that they're going to resolve as yes (otherwise I wouldn't have betted on a 50%+ if i'm going to lose mana :P) Since both of them are for all intents and purposes meet 100% of the criteria, could it be possible to override and resolve both as YES?

Else, since the resolution criteria wasn't set for a situation such as this, I'm also OK with setting the resolution as N/A. Because of this, I'd rather lean towards both of these resolution options (100% to both or N/A)

Just to harp on this a little bit more -

Resolving a 50/50 only at market close would establish that both are only half correct - which is factually untrue.

Alternatively, if a 50/50 was established well in advance as a possible resolution to a situation where two hold the full office title, then effectively redefines resolution criteria and gives the market enough time to respond. But since this didn't happen I think a 100% (or N/A) to both makes more sense.

@Shifbru Unfortunately you can’t resolve both to 100%, this is a linked multiple choice market so the percentages have to add up to 100 after resolving

Does "other" include "nobody"? Does this take into account the fact that Henry is not in Haiti and does not exercise enough authority there to even be allowed to return?

@Tetraspace what would you rule in the current situation? If everything stays as is for the next 2 weeks and no interim government is appointed?

Has handed in his resignation

BBC article stating he has resigned

@Laya I think he has technically not resigned yet, but instead said he is going to resign once a new transitional government is formed.

@Laya @Fedor things happen when they take effect – in this case, whenever the Presidential Council is in place.

It's a good thing that Henry cannot try to prevent the Council from being formed, but that is only because he has no real authority at all, which is actually a bad thing. He doesn't need to do anything though, as it is unlikely the council will be formed any time soon.