Resolves N/A for any party that doesn't win the next UK general election after 2025, currently scheduled for no later than Wednesday 15 August 2029. Resolves YES if the triple lock is scrapped by the election after that, and NO otherwise.

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Reform, followed by Conservatives and Green are most likely. See the market for live updates (1 traders, as of Jul 14, 2026).

If this party wins the next election after 2024, will the Triple Lock pension be scrapped by the election after?

Will the triple lock pension be scrapped before the next General Election?

48% chance

Will there be a basic State Pension increase below the Triple Lock level by the next UK general election after 2025?

41% chance

If this person is the leader of the Labour Party going into the next UK election after 2024, will the PM be Labour?

Will a "Republican trifecta" without any breaks [up to at least 2035] exist after the 2024 elections?

15% chance

Will there be a DFL trifecta in Minnesota after the 2026 election?

92% chance

Will the party that wins the 2024 USA election win in 2028?

42% chance

The Labour Party will win the next UK election (2023/4) and then govern for more than 8 contiguous years

36% chance

Will the party that wins the 2024 US presidential election win the 2028 presidential election

39% chance

Will the party that loses the 2024 USA election win in 2028?

59% chance

Will an "effectively permanent Republican trifecta" exist after the 2024 elections? [up to the year 2050]

13% chance

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