If Democrats have 52 seats in the Senate after the midterms, will the Senate break legislative filibuster?
40%
chance
Resolves positively if: • The Democrats have exactly 51 seats after the midterms, else N/A • The U.S. Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators duly chosen and sworn, else NO.
May 5, 10:12am: Correction to description: 52 seats, not 51.