If Democrats forgive $10,000 in federal student debt per person by the midterms will they win the Senate?
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https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7154/us-forgive-10k-student-debt-before-2024/ 30% chance this happens by 2024 per Metaculus. The condition for this question is the same as for that question but with a shorter timeframe https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/04/27/administration-signals-student-loan-forgiveness-decision-may-come-soon.html Biden is talking about student loan forgiveness here
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Do you think that the first part of this question is already resolved?

predicted NO

@jorge I'm deferring to Metaculus on this, which gives 88% probability. The remaining uncertainty is about whether it actually happens (rather than the executive order being struck down in the courts, which I don't think is on the cards but I think is in theory possible) and whether the student loan forgiveness is enough to meet the 90% of debt holders threshold.

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