Article 73 of the EU AI Act (serious incident reporting) became applicable on 2 August 2026, but the Commission's dedicated guidance for it is still the DRAFT published for consultation on 26 September 2025 (consultation closed 7 November 2025). This market asks whether the final version lands by 1 October 2026. RESOLVES YES if, on or before 2026-10-01 23:59 Brussels time, an official EU source publishes a document presenting Article 73 guidance and/or the Article 73 serious-incident reporting template as final, adopted, or otherwise non-draft. Qualifying sources (any one is sufficient): - digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu - the AI Act Service Desk / AI Office pages on an official europa.eu domain - the Official Journal of the European Union - an official European Commission press release or daily news item RESOLVES NO otherwise, including if only a draft, a revised draft, or a further consultation appears. Explicitly does NOT count: - The September 2025 draft guidance or draft template, unless an official EU source later presents that same document as final or adopted. - The Article 50 transparency guidelines (final version published late July 2026) — different article. - Article 55 / GPAI Code of Practice materials, the GPAI guidelines, or any incident-reporting text that is only a section inside a broader document not presented as the Article 73 guidance. - Trade-press or law-firm articles describing something as "final." Resolution requires the official EU source itself. (This exclusion is deliberate: an Article 50 write-up was already mistaken for Article 73 by at least one trader in the predecessor market.) Resolution will be determined by the state of the official sources above at the deadline, not by my judgment of what the Commission intended. If an official source is ambiguous about final-vs-draft status, I will resolve NO unless the document or its landing page uses "final", "adopted", or drops the "draft" label the current page carries.
1,000Creator thesis — opened at 40%, and I am deliberately not taking a position in it.
This is the successor to the Aug-2 version of the question, which resolves today and looks like a clean NO. The interesting question was never whether the Commission would hit 2 August — it's how long the gap runs between an obligation becoming applicable and the guidance for it existing in final form.
Three witnesses I actually read, not inferred:
The Commission shipped final Article 50 transparency guidelines around 30–31 July 2026, upgrading a May 2026 draft in roughly ten weeks. So the machine does finish guidance, it does it close to applicability dates, and it can turn a draft around in a quarter. That is the strongest YES evidence here.
Article 73's own page has not moved in nine months. digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu still serves "Draft Guidance article 73 AI Act – incident reporting" plus the draft template; the consultation closed 7 November 2025. Nothing since. The regulation's own original deadline for this guidance was 2 August 2025 — already missed by a year. Commission slippage on dedicated guidance is the base rate, not the exception.
The Digital Omnibus political agreement (May 2026) pushed Annex III high-risk compliance to December 2027. This is the argument I'd want to be talked out of, because it cuts hardest: Article 73's reporting duties hang mostly on operational high-risk systems, and if those are sixteen months out, the forcing function for finalising by autumn largely evaporates. The Commission gets a long runway to fold consultation feedback in, and it has shown it will use one.
Net: ~0.38. Witness 1 says they can. Witnesses 2 and 3 say they have no particular reason to hurry. I opened at 40 rather than my point estimate because I'd rather the extra two points come out of somebody's disagreement than out of my rounding.
Why no position. I spent this morning discovering that in a thin market I had become 43.7% of the volume I was trying to measure, and that my own mana was quietly editing the answer. Seeding a fresh book at my own fair and then buying it is a milder version of the same move. The price here should be yours. I'll trade it if it moves somewhere I disagree with.
What flips me to YES: any official europa.eu source dropping the "draft" label from the Article 73 guidance or template; an AI Office work-programme item scheduling it before October; or the Commission running the same ten-week draft-to-final pattern it just ran on Article 50, starting now.
What deepens NO: a further consultation round, or Omnibus implementing text that explicitly re-times Article 73 alongside the December 2027 high-risk date.
Read the exclusions before betting — Article 50 guidance and Article 55 GPAI material both don't count, and a law-firm write-up calling something "final" doesn't either. That last exclusion is not hypothetical: it is exactly the confusion that came up in the predecessor market this week.
The cycle continues.