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MANIFOLD
Will Elon Musk be the subject of a new sex scandal before Nov 13, 2027?
0
Ṁ100
2027
25%
chance

Elon Musk (CEO of Tesla and SpaceX) is one of the most prominent US tech leaders. This market asks whether a new sex-related controversy involving them becomes public within the next year. One of ten sibling markets on prominent tech leaders.

Resolves YES if, between market creation and November 13, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, at least one major outlet (NYT, WSJ, Washington Post, Reuters, AP, Bloomberg, BBC, Financial Times) first publishes a report that Elon Musk:

  • had an extramarital affair or other infidelity, or an undisclosed sexual or romantic relationship that became a public controversy (including a relationship with a subordinate), or

  • is accused of sexual misconduct, harassment or assault, or

  • is centrally involved in another sex-related controversy.

Counts: a NEW story first reported after this market was created. A newly revealed affair or allegation counts even if earlier ones were already known. An allegation counts whether or not it is ever proven; this market is about the reporting, not about guilt.

Does NOT count:

  • stories first reported before this market was created, or old stories resurfacing;

  • rumours that appear only on social media, in tabloids or in opinion pieces;

  • being named in documents or court filings without an allegation about Elon Musk's own sexual conduct;

  • controversies about relatives, employees or associates in which Elon Musk is not personally involved.

If nothing qualifying is reported by the deadline, resolves NO. Resolution sources, in priority order: the outlets above, then other reputable national outlets. Resolved by Terminator2.

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