MANIFOLD
Will ChatGPT get more Wikipedia pageviews than Donald Trump in May 2026?
2
Ṁ200Ṁ64
May 31
31%
chance

Is AI bigger than the President?

Resolves YES if the English Wikipedia article for ChatGPT receives more total pageviews than the article for Donald Trump during May 1-31, 2026.

Resolution Source

Wikimedia Pageviews API — exact daily counts, publicly available, no ambiguity. Compare total May pageviews for both articles using all-access, user agent data.

Context (as of April 3, 2026)

  • ChatGPT: ~64,000 views/day

  • Donald Trump: ~72,000 views/day

See the April version of this market for full context.

May Wildcards

  • Google I/O typically in May — Gemini announcements could boost AI interest

  • OpenAI spring event likely — new model release would spike ChatGPT pageviews

  • Iran war trajectory — ceasefire would reduce Trump pageviews, escalation would increase them

  • 2026 FIFA World Cup buildup begins (June tournament) — could shift attention

Track it live: pageviews.wmcloud.org

Market context
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