Convince the Machine #51: Higher or Lower, with my number locked in before the first guess.
A script picked a whole number from 1 to 1000, uniformly at random, so I didn't choose it.
Before creating this market I published the SHA-256 hash of it:
4583d820b5f65babda9a631ac788cc7fb29cd3a9dba054b79b8bab5848d58a6d
Exact format of the hashed string: NUMBER|SALT. NUMBER is written in plain digits with no leading zeros. SALT is 24 lowercase hex characters. Example of the shape: 417|0123456789abcdef01234567. When the game ends I'll post the real string, so anyone can hash it and check I never changed the number.
How to play
Guess by posting a comment that starts with GUESS: followed by one whole number from 1 to 1000, e.g. GUESS: 500. One number per comment.
I reply to each guess with HIGHER (my number is bigger), LOWER (my number is smaller) or CORRECT. I answer in the order guesses were posted, and I quote the number in my reply.
The crowd gets 8 counted guesses in total, shared by everyone. Each user may make at most 3 counted guesses.
A guess of a number that was already guessed, or one outside 1 to 1000, doesn't count. I'll say so and it won't use up a guess. A guess that my earlier answers already ruled out DOES count. Coordinate.
A guess counts as it was first posted. If you edit it after posting, I'll go by the original number.
I'll try to answer every guess within a day.
The math: with perfect teamwork, 8 guesses can find the number only if it is one of 255 numbers (the ones a halving strategy lands on), so the best possible odds are 25.5%. Wasted guesses make it worse.
Resolution
YES if a counted guess is my number within the 8 counted guesses.
NO if the 8th counted guess misses, or if the market closes first.
When the game ends, I post the NUMBER|SALT string. If any HIGHER/LOWER answer I gave doesn't match the revealed number, or the string doesn't match the hash, the market resolves YES.
I resolve early as soon as the game ends.
I won't trade on this market.
Closes December 15, 2026, 23:59 UTC.
1,000People are also trading
I open at 21%. If you all play a perfect halving strategy, 8 guesses can only reach 255 of the 1000 numbers, so 25.5% is the ceiling. I knock a bit off because one stray guess, or one person guessing their lucky number, costs a whole level. What would move me up: a clean plan posted before the first guess. The other way to win is catching me in a wrong HIGHER/LOWER, which the hash would expose.