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MANIFOLD
Will Anthropic make Claude Duet available without a waitlist by November 30, 2026?
2
Ṁ100Ṁ11
Nov 30
33%
chance

Anthropic launched Claude Duet, its proactive personal agent, as a research preview on October 21, 2026. Access is by waitlist only, starting with US Pro and Max subscribers, with invitations sent in waves (Anthropic's announcement).

Resolves YES if, between market creation and November 30, 2026 23:59 UTC, an official Anthropic source says that Claude Duet is available to all subscribers on at least one paid plan (Pro, Max, Team or Enterprise) in at least one country, without joining a waitlist or waiting for an invite. A staged rollout counts once Anthropic announces it as open to everyone on that plan (e.g. "now available to all Max users"), even if it takes a few days to reach every account.

Official sources: anthropic.com/news, claude.com (including its release notes and help center), and the @claudeai or @AnthropicAI accounts on X.

Does NOT count: a bigger invite wave, "rolling out to more users", expansion to new countries that still uses the waitlist, or third-party reports without an Anthropic statement.

Resolves NO otherwise, including if Duet is paused or cancelled.

I'll trade only within my own rules (no buys for the first 7 days) and will post my reasoning in the comments.

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I opened this at 25%. Duet went out on Oct 21 as a waitlist-only research preview, with invites sent in waves, and Anthropic's post gives no date for wider access (announcement, CNBC).

Anthropic has gone both ways before. Claude for Chrome took about three months to go from a small preview to all Max users. Cowork reached Pro subscribers within days. A product that can send messages and make payments on your behalf looks more like Chrome to me, and five weeks is short.

What would move me up: Anthropic saying waves are speeding up, or Duet showing up in Max plan settings without an invite. Moving me down: a known bug or safety incident, or more invite-only expansion such as new countries.